PF Reaction To USDA's April S&D Report

April 10, 2013 06:30 AM
 

2012-13 U.S. CARRYOVER

CORN: 757 million bu.; up from March proj. of 632 million bu.
-- compares to 988 million bu. in 2011-12
BEANS: 125 million bu.; unch from March proj. of 125 million bu.
-- compares to 169 million bu. in 2011-12
WHEAT: 731 million bu.; up from March proj. of 716 million bu.
-- compares to 743 million bu. in 2011-12
COTTON: 4.2 million bales; unch from March proj. of 4.2 million bales
-- compares to 3.35 million bales in 2011-12

Corn carryover is up 125 million bu. from the March World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE). Total supplies are unchanged from March, but USDA made several changes on the usage side. Feed & Residual use was cut 150 million bu., leaving the estimate at 4.4 billion bushels. USDA also cut estimated exports to 800 million bu., down 25 million bu. from March. Food, Seed & Industrial use was increased 50 million bu., with the entire increase going to the corn-for-ethanol grind. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash corn price at $6.65 (down a dime) to $7.15 (down 30 cents from March).

Soybean carryover is unchanged from March and USDA made no change on the supply side. On the usage side, USDA increased estimated crush by 20 million bu. (to 1.635 billion bu.) and increased estimated exports 5 million bu. (to 1.35 billion bushels). Residual "use" was cut 25 million bu. from March (to 5 million bu.) to completely offset actual use increases and to keep carryover steady at 125 million bushels. USDA left the national average on-farm cash price projection unchanged from March at $13.80 to $14.80.

Wheat carryover is up 15 million bu. from March, the result of a 15-million-bu. cut to estimated Feed & Residual use. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price at $7.70 (up a nickel) to $7.90 (down a nickel from last month).

Cotton carryover is unchanged from March, but there are several changes to the balance sheet. On the supply side, 280,000 bales were added to the 2012 crop. That was offset by a 250,000-bale increase in estimated exports and a 30,000-bale increase in "unaccounted" use. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price at 70.5 cents to 73.5 cents, up a half cent on both ends of the range from last month.

 

2012-13 GLOBAL CARRYOVER

CORN: 125.29 MMT; up from March proj. of 117.48 MMT
-- compares to 131.88 MMT in 2011-12
BEANS: 62.63 MMT; up from March proj. of 60.21 MMT
-- compares to 55.13 MMT in 2011-12
WHEAT: 182.26 MMT; up from March proj. of 178.23 MMT
-- compares to 199.38 MMT in 2011-12
COTTON: 82.45 mil. bales; up from March proj. of 81.74 mil. bales
-- compares to 70.16 mil. bales in 2011-12

 

 

2012-13 GLOBAL PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS

ARGENTINA BEANS: 51.5 MMT; compares to 51.5 MMT in March
-- compares to 40.1 MMT for 2011-12
BRAZIL BEANS: 83.5 MMT; compares to 83.5 MMT in March
-- compares to 66.5 MMT for 2011-12
ARGENTINA WHEAT: 11.0 MMT; compares to 11.0 MMT in March
-- compares to 15.5 MMT for 2011-12
AUSTRALIA WHEAT: 22.0 MMT; compares to 22.0 MMT in March
-- compares to 29.92 MMT for 2011-12
CHINA WHEAT: 120.6 MMT; compares to 120.6 MMT in March
-- compares to 117.4 MMT for 2011-12
CANADA WHEAT: 27.2 MMT; compares to 27.2 MMT in March
-- compares to 25.29 MMT for 2011-12
EU-27 WHEAT: 132.01 MMT; compares to 132.25 MMT in March
-- compares to 137.23 MMT for 2011-12
RUSSIA WHEAT: 37.72 MMT; compares to 37.72 MMT in March
-- compares to 56.24 MMT for 2011-12
FSU-12 WHEAT: 77.21 MMT; compares to 77.21 MMT in March
-- compares to 115.03 MMT for 2011-12
CHINA CORN: 208.0 MMT; compares to 208.0 MMT in March
-- compares to 192.78 MMT for 2011-12
ARGENTINA CORN: 26.5 MMT; compares to 26.5 MMT in March
-- compares to 21.0 MMT for 2011-12
SOUTH AFRICA CORN: 12.5 MMT; compares to 13.0 MMT in March
-- compares to 12.42 MMT for 2011-12
BRAZIL CORN: 74.0 MMT; compares to 72.5 MMT in March
-- compares to 73.0 MMT for 2011-12
CHINA COTTON: 35.0 mil. bales; compares to 35.0 mil. bales in March
-- compares to 33.10 mil. bales for 2011-12

 

 

MARKET REACTION

Corn futures softened following the report and are now trading 2 to 5 cents lower. Soybean futures were slightly higher ahead of the report, but prices have fallen to 4 to 8 cents lower in post-report trade. Wheat futures have extended losses in post-report trade and are 10 to 13 cents lower in Chicago and Kansas City. Minneapolis wheat is now mostly 14 to 21 cents lower.

 

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