PF Reaction To USDA's March S&D Report

March 8, 2013 05:22 AM
 

2012-13 U.S. CARRYOVER

CORN: 632 million bu.; unch from Feb. proj. of 632 million bu.
-- compares to 988 million bu. in 2011-12

BEANS: 125 million bu.; unch from Feb. proj. of 125 million bu.
-- compares to 169 million bu. in 2011-12

WHEAT: 716 million bu.; up from Feb. proj. of 691 million bu.
-- compares to 743 million bu. in 2011-12
COTTON: 4.2 million bales; down from Feb. proj. of 4.5 million bales

-- compares to 3.35 million bales in 2011-12

Corn carryover is unchanged from February, but there are several changes to the balance sheet. USDA increased estimated imports 25 million bu., to 125 million bu., raising total supplies by that amount. On the demand side, USDA increased estimated feed & residual use 100 million bu., to 4.550 billion bushels. Partially offsetting that increase was a 75-million-bu. cut to estimated exports, dropping expected shipments to just 825 million bushels. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash corn price at $6.75 (unchanged from February) to $7.45 (down 20 cents from last month).

Soybean carryover is also unchanged from February. Unlike corn, however, USDA made no changes to the balance sheet. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash bean price at $13.80 (up 25 cents) to $14.80 (down 25 cents from last month).

Wheat carryover is up 25 million bu., the result of a 25-million-bu. cut to estimated exports, which now stand at 1.025 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price at $7.65 (down a nickel) to $7.95 (down 15 cents from last month).

Cotton carryover is down 300,000 bales from last month. USDA increased estimated exports 250,000 bales from February to 12.75 million bales. USDA also increased unaccounted use 60,000 bales. The national average on-farm cash cotton price is now estimated at 70 cents (up a penny) to 73 cents (unchanged from February).

 

 

2012-13 GLOBAL CARRYOVER

CORN: 117.48 MMT; down from Feb. proj. of 118.04 MMT
-- compares to 131.16 MMT in 2011-12
BEANS: 60.21 MMT; up from Feb. proj. of 60.12 MMT
-- compares to 55.25 MMT in 2011-12
WHEAT: 178.23 MMT; up from Feb. proj. of 176.73 MMT
-- compares to 196.47 MMT in 2011-12
COTTON: 81.74 mil. bales; down from Feb. proj. of 81.86 mil. bales
-- compares to 68.98 mil. bales in 2011-12

 

 

2012-13 GLOBAL PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS

ARGENTINA BEANS: 51.5 MMT; compares to 53.0 MMT in February
-- compares to 40.1 MMT for 2011-12
BRAZIL BEANS: 83.5 MMT; compares to 83.5 MMT in February
-- compares to 66.5 MMT for 2011-12
ARGENTINA WHEAT: 11.0 MMT; compares to 11.0 MMT in February
-- compares to 15.5 MMT for 2011-12
AUSTRALIA WHEAT: 22.0 MMT; compares to 22.0 MMT in February
-- compares to 29.92 MMT for 2011-12
CHINA WHEAT: 120.6 MMT; compares to 120.6 MMT in February
-- compares to 117.4 MMT for 2011-12
CANADA WHEAT: 27.2 MMT; compares to 27.2 MMT in February
-- compares to 25.29 MMT for 2011-12
EU-27 WHEAT: 132.25 MMT; compares to 131.73 MMT in February
-- compares to 137.23 MMT for 2011-12
RUSSIA WHEAT: 37.72 MMT; compares to 37.7 MMT in February
-- compares to 56.24 MMT for 2011-12
FSU-12 WHEAT: 77.21 MMT; compares to 77.19 MMT in February
-- compares to 115.03 MMT for 2011-12
CHINA CORN: 208.0 MMT; compares to 208.0 MMT in February
-- compares to 192.78 MMT for 2011-12
ARGENTINA CORN: 26.5 MMT; compares to 27.0 MMT in February
-- compares to 21.0 MMT for 2011-12
SOUTH AFRICA CORN: 13.0 MMT; compares to 13.5 MMT in February
-- compares to 12.42 MMT for 2011-12
BRAZIL CORN: 72.5 MMT; compares to 72.5 MMT in February
-- compares to 73.0 MMT for 2011-12
CHINA COTTON: 35.0 mil. bales; compares to 34.0 mil. bales in February
-- compares to 33.10 mil. bales for 2011-12

 

MARKET REACTION

Corn traders were encouraged by the steady corn carryover estimate and responded with higher prices immediately after the report was released. But those gains have been trimmed as bean traders were disappointed USDA left U.S. carryover unchanged and are responding with lower prices. Wheat is trading just slightly lower following the report.

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