PF Special -- Reaction to USDA's April 2014 Report

11:35AM Apr 09, 2014
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Market reaction

Ahead of the reports, May corn futures were trading around 4 cents higher. The contract shot sharply higher immediately following the report, but has backed off to trade around a penny higher. December corn futures were trading fractionally lower ahead of the report release. After initially rallying, the contract is now around 4 cents lower.

May soybean futures were trading around 15 cents higher going into the report. Gains have been extended to around 20 cents now. November soybeans have also extended gains from around 7 cents ahead of the report to a dime currently.

July SRW wheat futures were down around a nickel and July HRW futures were down a penny ahead of USDA's data. Both have extended losses with SRW wheat now down a dime and HRW down around 4 cents.

Cotton futures were facing mild bull spread unwinding ahead of the reports with old-crop futures slightly lower and new-crop slightly higher. Current price action is similar.


2013-14 U.S. carryover

CORN: 1.331 billion bu.; down from March proj. of 1.456 billion bu. -- compares to 824 million bu. in 2012-13
BEANS: 135 million bu.; down from March proj. of 145 million bu.
-- compares to 141 million bu. in 2012-13
WHEAT: 583 million bu.; up from March proj. of 558 million bu.
-- compares to 718 million bu. in 2012-13
COTTON: 2.5 million bales; down from March proj. of 2.8 million bales
-- compares to 3.9 million bales in 2012-13

USDA's old-crop corn ending stocks projection was lowered 125 million bu. from last month and came in 72 million bu. lower than the average pre-report guess. The only change to the balance sheet was a 125-million-bu. increase to exports, which are now estimated at 1.75 billion bushels. USDA now projects an average on-farm cash price of $4.40 to $4.80, up 15 cents on the bottom end of the range and up a nickel on the top end from last month.

Soybean ending stocks were lowered 10 million bu. from last month, which was 4 million bu. more than traders expected. On the supply side, USDA increased estimated imports by 30 million bu. to 65 million bushels. Total supply is now forecast at 3.494 billion bushels. On the demand side, USDA raised estimated exports by 50 million bu. to 1.58 billion bu. and raised seed use 8 million bu. to 95 million bushels. USDA also reduced estimated crush by 5 million bu. to 1.685 billion bu. and lowered residual "use" by 12 million bu. to zero. USDA's national average on-farm cash price projection is now $12.50 to $13.50, up 30 cents on the bottom end of the range and down 20 cents on the top end.

Wheat ending stocks are projected up 25 million bu. from last month. USDA lowered its wheat import forecast by 5 million bu. and dropped its feed and residual projection by 30 million bu. from last month. USDA projects the national average on-farm wheat price at $6.75 to $6.95, unchanged from last month.

Cotton carryover was lowered 300,000 bales from last month. On the supply side, USDA cut its 2013 crop estimate by 320,000 bales based on the March 25 Cotton Ginnings Report. On the demand side, unaccounted "use" was reduced 20,000 bales. USDA now projects a national average cash price of 76 cents to 79 cents, up a penny on both ends of the range.


2013-14 global carryover

CORN: 158.00 MMT; down from March proj. of 158.47 MMT
-- 134.4 MMT for 2012-13
BEANS: 69.42 MMT; down from March proj. of 70.64 MMT
-- 57.87 MMT for 2012-13
WHEAT: 186.68 MMT; up from March proj. of 183.81 MMT
-- 176.6 MMT for 2012-13
COTTON: 96.92 mil. bales; up from March proj. of 96.75 mil. bales
-- 89.16 MMT for 2012-13


2013-14 global production highlights

ARGENTINA BEANS: 54.0 MMT; compares to 54.0 MMT in March
-- 49.3 MMT for 2012-13
BRAZIL BEANS: 87.5 MMT; compares to 88.5 MMT in March
-- 82.0 MMT for 2012-13
ARGENTINA WHEAT: 10.5 MMT; compares to 10.5 MMT in March
-- 9.3 MMT for 2012-13
AUSTRALIA WHEAT: 27.0 MMT; compares to 27.0 MMT in March
-- 22.46 MMT for 2012-13
CHINA WHEAT: 121.72 MMT; compares to 121.72 MMT in March
-- 121.02 MMT for 2012-13
CANADA WHEAT: 37.5 MMT; compares to 37.5 MMT in March
-- 27.21 MMT for 2012-13
EU WHEAT: 142.89 MMT; compares to 142.89 MMT in March
-- 133.88 MMT for 2012-13
RUSSIA WHEAT: 52.09 MMT; compares to 52.07 MMT in March
-- 37.72 MMT for 2012-13
FSU-12 WHEAT: 103.75 MMT; compares to 103.83 MMT in March
-- 77.35 MMT for 2012-13
CHINA CORN: 217.73 MMT; compares to 217.73 MMT in March
-- 205.61 MMT for 2012-13
ARGENTINA CORN: 24.0 MMT; compares to 24.0 MMT in March
-- 27.0 MMT for 2012-13
SOUTH AFRICA CORN: 14.0 MMT; compares to 13.0 MMT in March
-- 12.37 MMT for 2012-13
BRAZIL CORN: 72.0 MMT; compares to 70.0 MMT in March
-- 81.5 MMT for 2012-13
CHINA COTTON: 32.0 mil. bales; compares to 32.0 mil. bales in March
-- 35.0 MMT for 2012-13