PF Special -- Reaction to USDA's March 2014 Reports

March 10, 2014 06:26 AM



Market reaction

Ahead the report, May corn futures were trading about 4 cents lower and despite the lower-than-expected corn carryover estimate, May futures are now about 6 cents lower. December corn futures were 2 cents lower ahead of the report, but are now about a nickel lower. May soybean futures were off about 15 cents ahead of the report, with November beans down a nickel. After the report, old-crop beans are 17 to 24 cents lower and new-crop beans are around a dime lower. July SRW futures were down slightly ahead of the report and are now down about 2 cents. July HRW futures were up about 2 cents in early trade and are fractionally lower following the USDA reports.


The carryover updates for corn and wheat came in below pre-report trade expectations and soybean carryover came in slightly higher than traders expected.


2013-14 U.S. carryover

CORN: 1.456 billion bu.; down from Feb. proj. of 1.481 billion bu.
-- compares to 824 million bu. in 2012-13
BEANS: 145 million bu.; down from Feb. proj. of 150 million bu.
-- compares to 141 million bu. in 2012-13
WHEAT: 558 million bu.; unch. from Feb. proj. of 558 million bu.
-- compares to 718 million bu. in 2012-13
COTTON: 2.8 million bales; down from Feb. proj. of 3.0 million bales
-- compares to 3.9 million bales in 2012-13

For corn, USDA made very few changes to the Supply & Demand estimates from last month. Old-crop corn exports are now estimated at 1.625 billion bu., up 25 million bu. from February. The entire increase in demand was taken off expected 2013-14 corn carryover. Ahead of the report, traders expected USDA to increase carryover from February by about 6 million bushels. The 25-million-bu. cut to carryover, however, had little impact on USDA's projection of the national average on-farm cash corn price. USDA narrowed the price range by a nickel on both ends of the range, to $4.25 to $4.75.

For soybeans, USDA delivered the widely expected 20-million-bu. increase in estimated 2013-14 exports. The export estimate now stands at 1.53 billion bushels. That increase was partially offset by a 5-million-bu. increase in estimated imports and a 10-million-bu. cut to estimated soybean crush. USDA raised the national average on-farm cash soybean price projection 25 cents on both ends of the range, which now stands at $12.20 to $13.70.

On wheat, USDA made no changes on the supply or demand side of the balance sheet. However, the estimate is about 12 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price at $6.75 to $6.95, up a dime on the bottom end of the range and steady on the top from last month.

On cotton, USDA increased estimated exports 200,000 bales from the February estimate, to 10.7 million bales. The entire increase in demand was taken off of projected 2013-14 cotton carryover, which now stands at 2.8 million bales. USDA's national average on-farm cash cotton price projection now stands at 75 cents to 78 cents, up a penny on the bottom of the range and unchanged on the top of the range from last month.


2013-14 global carryover

CORN: 158.47 MMT; up from Feb. proj. of 157.3 MMT
-- 134.67 MMT for 2012-13
BEANS: 70.64 MMT; down from Feb. proj. of 73.01 MMT
-- 57.79 MMT for 2012-13
WHEAT: 183.81 MMT; up from Feb. proj. of 183.73 MMT
-- 175.92 MMT for 2012-13
COTTON: 96.75 mil. bales; down from Feb. proj. of 96.47 mil. bales
-- 89.16 MMT for 2012-13


2013-14 Global production highlights

ARGENTINA BEANS: 54.0 MMT; compares to 54.0 MMT in February
-- 49.3 MMT for 2012-13
BRAZIL BEANS: 88.5 MMT; compares to 90.0 MMT in February
-- 82.0 MMT for 2012-13
ARGENTINA WHEAT: 10.5 MMT; compares to 10.5 MMT in February
-- 9.3 MMT for 2012-13
AUSTRALIA WHEAT: 27.0 MMT; compares to 26.5 MMT in February
-- 22.46 MMT for 2012-13
CHINA WHEAT: 121.72 MMT; compares to 122.0 MMT in February
-- 121.02 MMT for 2012-13
CANADA WHEAT: 37.5 MMT; compares to 37.5 MMT in February
-- 27.21 MMT for 2012-13
EU WHEAT: 142.89 MMT; compares to 142.87 MMT in February
-- 133.88 MMT for 2012-13
RUSSIA WHEAT: 52.07 MMT; compares to 52.07 MMT in February
-- 37.72 MMT for 2012-13
FSU-12 WHEAT: 103.83 MMT; compares to 103.83 MMT in February
-- 77.50 MMT for 2012-13
CHINA CORN: 217.73 MMT; compares to 217.0 MMT in February
-- 205.6 MMT for 2012-13
ARGENTINA CORN: 24.0 MMT; compares to 24.0 MMT in February
-- 26.5 MMT for 2012-13
SOUTH AFRICA CORN: 13.0 MMT; compares to 13.0 MMT in February
-- 12.37 MMT for 2012-13
BRAZIL CORN: 70.0 MMT; compares to 70.0 MMT in February
-- 81.0 MMT for 2012-13
CHINA COTTON: 32.0 mil. bales; compares to 32.0 mil. bales in February
-- 35.0 MMT for 2012-13

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