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August 6, 2013 02:05 AM


July 13, 2013 | Vol. 41, No. 28

News 2 | News 3 | News 4 | Analysis 1 | Analysis 2 | Analysis 3 | Analysis 4

Crops and markets experience a ‘transition week’ — After battling mud and severely delayed plantings in Iowa and Minnesota this spring, most areas haven’t seen a significant rain in the past two weeks. At first, the warmer and drier conditions were favorable, but planting conditions left corn and soybeans vulnerable to even short-lived dry conditions. The rains that hammered the western Corn Belt in May and June also transitioned and moved to the eastern Corn Belt where areas saw flood and wind damage erase what was "best-ever" yield potential. Wheat (HRW and SRW) harvest is progressing and USDA now says winter wheat growers are harvesting a crop with a record yield, but demand for supplies is building. All that happened in a week that end-users sent strong signals that new-crop corn, soybean and wheat prices have fallen to levels to warrant extended coverage. Livestock also saw a transition with traders buying weakness in live cattle and selling strength in lean hogs.


News this week...

Page 2: Demand returning for 2013 crops.
Page 3: Details of USDA S&D Report.
Page 4:
Pollination forecast

Important trend change in global carryover estimate. Wheat saw an important change in the trend of global carryover in the July 11 Supply & Demand Report. Oldcrop global wheat carryover is now estimated at 174.47 million metric tons (MMT), down from the June estimate of 179.87 MMT. More importantly, new-crop global wheat carryover is estimated at 172.38 MMT, down from the June projection of 181.25 MMT and below the current old-crop estimate. The change from "up" to "down" in the year-toyear global wheat trend changes the dynamics of the wheat market. Global 2013-14 corn carryover of 150.97 MMT is up 22% from 2012-13. Global 2013-14 soybean carryover of 74.12 MMT is up 20% from 2012-13. Global 2013-14 cotton carryover of 94.34 million bales is up 10% from 2012-13.


‘It’s hard to believe if you haven’t seen it’ "For the first time, corn was planted in this area in July," reports a PF Member from Albert Lea, Minnesota. "It’s about four inches tall when it should be about ready to tassel."

A Minnesota Lake, Minn., PF Member says he’s on the western rim of the severely late planted area. "We’ve got about 20% Prevented Plant in the area. What’s left of the corn has a poor stand and is way behind. Some will pollinate in the third week of July, but most will push into August." And the problem plunges into Iowa. The Prevented Plant tally in Humboldt Co., Iowa, is at 10,000 acres and climbing, according to sources.

A drive from Des Moines to eastern Iowa last week showed us about every conceivable crop condition and development. Some replanted corn just outside of Des Moines is just four or five inches tall; corn around Oxford Junction, Iowa, is starting to tassel. Corn south of Marshalltown, Iowa, was rolling due to shallow-rooted moisture stress; that tasseling corn in eastern Iowa had received nearly one inch of rain July 10. "It’s hard to believe if you haven’t seen it," says a seasoned crop-observer making his first trip of the year to Iowa. "This is much worse than I anticipated."

And according to our crop reporters, it’s worse in southern Minnesota. Another tunedin crop observer from northern Iowa says, "There is good corn in northern Iowa... it’s all on the top of small knobs in fields. That’s the only spots with a good stand. Start down the slope and populations just won’t support a good yield. Most of the guys in the affected area just don’t have enough of the production factory up and running to make a good yield." We know there is very good corn yield potential on a majority of acres in the Corn Belt, but do not underestimate the area (or its importance) with significant crop problems.


‘Bean yield could be a bigger surprise!’ It’s still way too early to "pass judgement" on this year’s soybean crop, but conversations about corn yields with Iowa and Minnesota growers typically end with, "Oh... and the bean yield could be an even bigger surprise." Bean plants in the late-planted area are shockingly short and range from just emerged to about six inches tall. It will be tough to develop enough nodes on these plants to establish a "good" yield potential. "We’ve planted beans in mid- to late-June before," says our Minnesota Lake Member. "They yield about 18 bu. to 22 bu. per acre."

Lower prices equal bigger demand! USDA announced Friday morning that China had purchased 960,000 metric tons (MT) of 2013-crop U.S. corn. This is solid evidence that new-crop corn is trading "at value." See News page 2 for more on new-crop demand.

Acreage reporting deadline extended Farm Service Agency (FSA) has pushed back the deadline to report acres to Aug. 2 (was July 15) to accommodate schedules in areas with late plantings and increased levels of Prevented Plant and failed-acres claims. However, Risk Management Agency (RMA), says the RMA acreage reporting date will remain at July 15 for most spring-planted crops as Prevented Plant claims must be issued in writing within 15 days of the final-plant date.

Still no certainty on future of farm bill "What I’m afraid of is that this is just for show and they’ll [House Republicans] do the same thing they did on the budget... and that it will not go to conference." That’s from Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), the Ag panel’s ranking Democrat on the day the House passed its farm-only farm bill. We’ve got more on the House action on News page 3.

News page 2


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