Pin the Tail on USDA Acreage Totals

April 9, 2015 12:00 PM
Kansas milo

USDA surprised the bulk of the trade with its recent Prospective Plantings report March 31, which is proof producers can’t predict with certainty what the government’s annual survey will say.

Power Hour Noon LogoAs a result, markets were “down 18 cents in corn and actually up a little bit in soybeans,” explains Angie Maguire, Citizens LLC, on the “AgDay” Agribusiness Update. “This report is probably one that I think a lot of people should remember in the sense that we went into it with everyone believing they knew exactly what USDA was going to say. I think if you would have asked anyone, they would have bet a lot—and they did, I mean you saw a lot of money change hands that day. And of course there were the buyers there for the sellers, and there were people that made money off of those who lost. That’s how the market works.”

Keep in mind, though, that those acreage totals will change in the months ahead.

“I anticipate an increase in milo acres,” Maguire says. “I think we probably see an increase in what soybean acres are planted. We really want to watch what’s going on out west and east. We have a pretty solid dichotomy that’s building up. We’re very dry in the west, very wet in the east. We’ve had a couple benign growing seasons. This year could be interesting.

“Always remember, though, that dry weather … tends to be bearish before it’s bullish, meaning we’ll see a lot of folks talk about how we’re getting the crop planted, and that has a negative impact on corn. When we look at what’s going on in the Delta, Louisiana, Texas, Missouri, Arkansas, I mean those areas and then your Ohio River Valley, it’s definitely going to be something we’re going to want to watch in the next 10 days to two weeks.”

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