P&K Today: K Producers Shuffle Assets in a Gambler's Market

November 7, 2013 06:17 AM
 

P&K retail prices were steady to slightly lower during the week ended November 1 led by mild declines in Potash and DAP while MAP moved a tick higher. Weather is slowing harvest and propane deliveries are still having a hard time keeping up with dryer fuels demand on the farm. Expect delivery delays in some areas until Thanksgiving.

Koch increased its stake in Intrepid Potash this week to 6.9% as North American potash stocks work to regain traction in the market. K+S found their stock downgraded on concerns of overspending at the German company's Canadian Legacy Project mine complex, under construction. This as fears of an FSU oversupply wane. But that does not mean Uralkali isn't moving aggressively forward on the production front. Just last week, Uralkali reported it had secured a 171.4 Million Euro loan to sink two more shafts at its Ust-Yayvinsky potash mine.Picture3

Competition between Uralkali and former partner Belaruskali was supposed to oversupply the market and drive prices lower. Prices have since moved dramatically lower, but Belaruskali is slipping on the production side and the oversupply war is at present a lopsided victory in favor of Uralkali.

The real impact of the rumors of oversupply driven discounts has kept buyers out of the market until the last possible moment, and may even have a significant proportion of growers holding off on P&K applications until spring. Meanwhile, supply features are working to limit upside price risk for nutrient in the coming months. A strong corn supply has corn futures ranging very low, and fertilizer inventories have grown in anticipation of fall purchases. Neither will find any price strength until the supply situation rebalances. This should hold prices at or very near current levels until corn futures rally.

This week --

  • DAP $127.02 below year-ago pricing -- down $2.71 on the week to $524.02/st.
  • MAP $108.38 below year-ago --up $2.50 this week to $559.20/st.
  • Potash $120.82 below-year ago -- down $2.97 to $483.18/st.
  • December 2014 corn futures today opened a dime lower than last week's $4.61 1/2 with the national average cash corn price down 7 cents from last week to $4.25 1/4. Corn basis moved above futures pricing to stand at 4 1/4 cents above December 13 futures.

 

By the Pound --

DAP 1/2 cent lower to 54 1/2 cents/lbP2O5; MAP unchanged at 53 1/4 cents/lbP2O5; Potash unchanged on the week by the pound at 41 1/4 cents/lbK2O.

The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended Nov. 1, 2013.

P&K pricing by pound -- 11/7/2013

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
Iowa
$0.58
$0.52
$0.40
Illinois
$0.53
$0.52
$0.39
Indiana
$0.56
$0.54
$0.39
Wisconsin
$0.57
$0.52
$0.37
Minnesota
$0.56
$0.52
$0.38
South Dakota
$0.55
$0.51
$0.42
North Dakota
$0.53
$0.51
$0.38
Nebraska
$0.50
$0.53
$0.45
Missouri
$0.57
$0.52
$0.40
Kansas
$0.55
$0.54
$0.43
Ohio
$0.53
$0.54
$0.40
Michigan
$0.52
$0.52
$0.38
Average
$0.54 1/2
$0.53 1/4
$0.41 1/4
Year-ago
$0.68
$0.62
$0.50

 

Wholesale --

MosaicCo reports wholesale DAP and MAP moved lower in the U.S. Corn Belt, Tampa and Morocco, but ticked $2.00 higher at NOLA. Potash slid sideways at all locations reported with wholesale granular MOP in the Corn Belt at $384.00/metric ton. Raw phosphate rock from Morocco moved $2.00 lower and Tampa ammonia was unchanged.

The Percentages --

Potash softened 0.6% from last week's 19.4% below year-over pricing to stand 20.0% below year-ago; DAP added another 0.09% to the year-on-year differential to 19.8% below year-ago; MAP unchanged at 16.2% below last year's price, and anhydrous firmed 0.04% during the week to end at 21.0% below last year's price at this time.

 
Current price/short ton
Percent of year-ago
Potash
$483.18
-20.0%
DAP
$524.02
-19.8%
MAP
$559.20
-16.2%
NH3
$680.65
-21.0%

 


 

 

 

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