P&K Today: Markets Await Price Guidance

December 12, 2013 09:58 AM
 

P&K retail prices all fell slightly on the week with DAP leading declines.Picture1

International sendouts of P&K are behind year-ago and upstream producers are ultimately eyeing Q1 2014 tenders to China for price guidance. Meanwhile, domestic suppliers have taken advantage of the price breaks and hedged a portion of inventory for spring. This signals uncertainty in the outlook and a sense that a price recovery may come this winter. However, due to the current supply balance spring prices will likely be limited by product already in-stream.

Things are cooling down between Russia and Belarus as Uralkali CEO Baumgertner is back in Russia awaiting trial there. Much of what has happened to Mr. Baumgertner since the split of BPC is considered to be a form of political posturing and international theater. Ultimately, since Belarus is part of Russia's Customs Union, the two are already working together and will continue to do so whether BPC reunites or not.Picture2

In other news of the Former Soviet Union, Ukrainian dissidents have beaten back riot police and rebuilt barricades around Independence Square in protest of President Yanukovych's decision not to sign on with the E.U. That move was seen by the international community and by the citizens of Ukraine as a move toward Russia at the expense of Euro-relations. Russia would prefer Ukraine join Belarus and Kazakhstan in its Customs Union rather than siding with the European Union.

This week --

  • DAP $130.62 below year-ago pricing -- down $2.34 on the week to $525.21/st.
  • MAP $109.91 below year-ago -- down 15 cents this week to $558.75/st.
  • Potash $121.40 below-year ago -- down $1.13 this week to $481.18/st.
  • December 2014 corn futures opened 3 1/4 cents higher this morning than last week's P&K Today at $4.66 1/2 with the national average cash corn price 3 cents higher from last week at $4.37 3/4. Corn basis firmed 1/4 cent to stand at 1 1/2 cents below March 2014 futures.

 

By the Pound --

DAP 1/2 cent lower to 55 cents/lbP2O5; MAP is unchanged at 52 1/2 cents/lbP2O5; Potash moved 1/4 cent lower on the week to 39 3/4 cents/lbK2O.

The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended Dec. 6, 2013.

P&K pricing by pound -- 12/12/2013

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
Iowa
$0.59
$0.55
$0.41
Illinois
$0.53
$0.52
$0.39
Indiana
$0.56
$0.53
$0.39
Wisconsin
$0.51
$0.56
$0.38
Minnesota
$0.55
$0.55
$0.40
South Dakota
$0.55
$0.50
$0.40
North Dakota
$0.56
$0.50
$0.39
Nebraska
$0.55
$0.52
$0.43
Missouri
$0.53
$0.51
$0.39
Kansas
$0.55
$0.53
$0.42
Ohio
$0.53
$0.51
$0.40
Michigan
$0.61
$0.53
$0.38
Average
$0.55
$0.52 1/2
$0.39 3/4
Year-ago
$0.69
$0.62
$0.50

 

Wholesale --

MosaicCo reports wholesale DAP moved higher at Tampa, Morocco and at NOLA and softened $2.00 MT at Central Florida. MAP higher again this week at Brazilian terminals. Wholesale potash softened in the Corn Belt and ran sideways in Southeast Asia and Brazil for the second straight week. Raw phosphate rock from Morocco fell $2.00/tonne and Tampa ammonia held firm at $450/ton.

The Percentages Year-over --

The figures below give us insight into where prices were last year at this time compared to today's price by percentage. These numbers will shrink in a hurry in the event of a rally, but because corn futures are ranging much lower than year-ago, price strength will be limited until new-crop returns improve.

The year-on-year potash margin thinned 0.1% on the week to stand 20.1% below year-ago; DAP added 0.2% to the year-on-year differential to 19.9% below year-ago; MAP is unchanged at 16.4% below last year's price, and NH3 trimmed the year-over gap by 0.1% during the week to end at 23.1% below last year's price at this time.

 
Current regional average price/short ton
Percent of year-ago
Potash
$481.18
-20.1%
DAP
$525.21
-19.9%
MAP
$558.75
-16.4%
NH3
$669.55
-23.1%

 


 

 

 

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