P&KToday: Ammonia to Aid Phosphate Recovery

March 27, 2014 10:55 AM
 

 Picture1

Potash prices have not moved much in the past few weeks as North American inventories are currently high. This week potash adds just 21 cents to the regional average price per ton led by a 39 cent falloff in Iowa and a $7.40 increase in Missouri. The upward movement in Missouri is in response to southern fieldwork now underway and we expect price action there to be reflected in areas north as the weather opens the window for spring preplant applications.

It is encouraging that Missouri only added 7 bucks, and suggests price discovery has done its job. Current retail values are expected to hold in place with more upside potential than down, but so far, that upside potential has been muted by inventory overhang and the opinion that many growers will hold off on P&K this spring.

Picture2

Phosphate has been in our headlines for upside risk for the last two weeks, and little has changed with the exception of a $120.00 boost in wholesale ammonia pricing into Tampa week-over. Current prices are $70.00 below year ago suggesting P has upside room to run, and with new production feedstock ammonia prices pegged up $120 on the week, it will not be long before phosphate trims the year-over gap even farther. We issued an ALERT yesterday to fill remaining phosphate as prices are expected to run higher near-term... before spring.

Meanwhile, North American inventories lag; production lags; exports lag... that's a lot of lagging. Price recovery will follow demand and as with all other nutrient, the advent of spring applications threatens higher pricing on hand-to-mouth demand.

DAP and MAP prices moved higher again this week, and potash followed.

  • DAP $70.64 below year-ago pricing -- up $4.88/st on the week to $570.77/st.
  • MAP $69.79 below year-ago -- up $3.70/st this week to $585.71/st.
  • Potash $116.82 below-year ago -- up 21 cents/st this week to $463.26/st.
  • December 2014 corn futures opened 4 1/2 cents lower this morning than our last P&KToday at $4.84 1/4. The national average corn basis firmed 2 3/4 cents from last week to stand 3/4 cent under May futures. The national average cash corn price softened 1/2 cent from last week to $4.83 3/4.

 

By the Pound --

DAP is 3/4 cent higher at 59 1/2 cents/lbP2O5; MAP is up 1/4 cent to 55 cents/lbP2O5; Potash unchanged on the week at 38 1/4 cents/lbK2O.

The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended March 27, 2014.

P&K pricing by pound -- 3/27/2014

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
Iowa
$0.58
$0.56
$0.38
Illinois
$0.60
$0.51
$0.38
Indiana
$0.60
$0.55
$0.38
Wisconsin
$0.56
$0.55
$0.35
Minnesota
$0.57
$0.54
$0.38
South Dakota
$0.62
$0.57
$0.39
North Dakota
$0.59
$0.56
$0.38
Nebraska
$0.59
$0.54
$0.42
Missouri
$0.63
$0.57
$0.39
Kansas
$0.60
$0.55
$0.38
Ohio
$0.61
$0.56
$0.38
Michigan
$0.61
$0.55
$0.38
Average
$0.59 1/2
$0.55
$0.38 1/4
Year-ago
$0.68
$0.61
$0.48

 


 

 

 

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