Power Hour: Corn Advances on Speculation U.S. Will Lower Supply Estimate

March 7, 2013 08:30 AM

March 7 (Bloomberg) -- Corn rose in Chicago, rebounding from a one-week low, and soybeans gained on speculation the U.S. government will lower estimates for supplies of both crops.

World corn inventories before the 2013-14 harvest will probably total 117.5 million metric tons, below the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 118 million-ton forecast last month, according to the average estimate of 18 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. The USDA is set to release its latest outlook tomorrow. Soybean inventories may be 59.31 million tons, under the prior forecast of 59.46 million tons, analysts said.

"When you look at supply, it’s still very thin," Joyce Liu, an analyst at Phillip Futures Pte, said by phone from Singapore today. Supplies will remain limited because of shipping delays at Brazilian ports, she said.

Corn for delivery in May added as much as 0.7 percent on the Chicago Board of Trade and was up 0.1 percent at $6.8925 a bushel by 6:38 a.m. local time. The grain yesterday touched $6.88, the lowest since Feb. 26. Soybeans for the same delivery month rose 0.3 percent to $14.70 a bushel on trading volume that was 53 percent below the 100-day average for that time of day.

Brazil, set to overtake the U.S. as the world’s biggest soybean exporter, may harvest 83.2 million tons of the oilseed, less than the previous USDA forecast of 83.5 million tons, according to the Bloomberg survey. Argentine output at 51.2 million tons compares with the earlier estimate of 53 million tons. Macquarie Group Ltd. pegs Brazil’s crop at 81 million tons and Argentina’s at 48.9 million tons.

Brazilian Exports

"We expect the USDA to generally lower South American production," Chris Gadd, a London-based Macquarie analyst, said in an e-mailed report today. "Internal logistical issues limited the volumes of soy Brazil was able to export through February, forcing some demand back to the U.S."

The USDA will report weekly export sales estimates for U.S. crops today. Sales of U.S. soybeans probably ranged between 400,000 tons and 750,000 tons in the week ended Feb. 28, down from about 1 million in the same period last year, according to a separate Bloomberg survey.

Wheat for delivery in May rose 0.4 percent to $6.8625 a bushel. The grain yesterday reached $6.80, the lowest since June 22. In Paris, milling wheat for the same delivery month fell 0.8 percent to the day’s low of 230.75 euros ($300) a ton on NYSE Liffe, the lowest for a most-active contract since July 2.


--With assistance from Jeff Wilson in Chicago. Editors: Dan Weeks, Sharon Lindores.

To contact the reporters on this story: Luzi Ann Javier in Singapore at ljavier@bloomberg.net; Whitney McFerron in London at wmcferron1@bloomberg.net

For More Information
See AgWeb's full coverage of the reports Friday, following their 11 a.m. release. Read AgWeb's

Pre-Report Analysis of March 8 Reports



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