Power Hour: Wet Weather Feeds Summer Rally Potential

June 4, 2013 09:30 AM
Power Hour: Wet Weather Feeds Summer Rally Potential

Two marketing experts agree several factors are pointing to the potential of higher prices during the next few months.

Corn planting is finally back on track. As of June 2, 91% of the crop is planted, which compares to a five-year average of 85% by this date.

Yet, even though the crop is in the ground, it is still behind. Around 74% of the crop has emerged, which is behind the five-year average of 82%. Also, only 11% of the crop is rated to have an excellent condition rating, while 52% is good.

For soybeans, slightly more than half of the crop has been planted. Normally, three-fourths is in the ground by the first week of June. Only 31% of the crop has emerged.

The excessively wet spring has started to whittle down the record 97.3 million acres of corn USDA predicted farmers to plant with its March Prospective Plantings report.

Andy Shissler, Roach Ag Marketing, says with the potential loss in corn acres, a summer price rally may be in the cards. "Going forward, we are going to seem some dramatic rallies for the summer. I project we could hit $6.20 on corn, depending on weather."

While he acknowledges he is probably more bullish that other advisors, he thinks farmers will be able to price corn above $6 this year.

Arlan Suderman, Water Street Solutions senior market analyst, agrees the market dynamics are changing. "The next three weeks are very critical."

He thinks the soybean market also hold rally potential. "All we need to see is a 4% to 5% reduction in yields this year to start getting some hot soybean markets."

Hear Shissler and Suderman’s full analysis in U.S. Farm Report’s Markets Now segment:


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