Pre-Report Commentary for January USDA Crop Reports

January 9, 2010 12:57 AM
 


 

Linda H. Smith, Top Producer Business and Marketing Editor
 
On Tuesday, Jan. 12, USDA will release their January Crop Production Report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
 
Hear two expert's insight going into these reports.
 
Bob Utterback of Utterback Marketing expects a neutral to bearish tone from Tuesday's USDA reports. "The biggest question is what yields will be. Will good crops in much of the country offset the problems in the northern Corn Belt? On soybeans, he notes that with a huge South American crop coming out of the field and China ready to switch purchases to the Southern Hemisphere, the only thing supporting prices is investment money. "Once the Index Funds complete their re-balancing around the end of next week, soybean prices will be under pressure as farmers move inventory to raise cash flow.”
 
 
"We could get some blockbuster reports again,” believes Jerry Gulke of the Gulke Group and Top Producer Market Strategy columnist. "Going into the reports, I would take a defensive stand.” He believes that USDA will treat corn still standing in the field as "stored on farm” and even if test weights are low, it's still a big crop. "What is important is how the market reacts on Tuesday. If we go into the report with corn looking positive and it drops after the report, I'd probably add to sales. Likewise, if beans look bearish – as they do now -- and reverse, it could mean the market had already factored in all the bearish news.”
 
 

For More Information
 
On Jan. 12, Top Producer and AgWeb will have more commentary and all of the report data.
 

 
You can e-mail Linda Smith at lsmith@farmjournal.com.

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