Price Rallies Likely as Rationing Continues

October 19, 2012 11:57 AM

This information is provided by Archer Financial Services, Inc. 800-933-3996.

The grain markets slipped early this week following last week’s late week rollercoaster as the market digested the USDA’s latest update of production and US/Global supply and demand updates. Corn harvest should be about 90% completed with the soybean harvest at about 80% complete.

This early week slip can be attributed to better than expected soybean yields, based on new field data, and favorable South American planting weather however; South American weather in recent days has begun to look too dry. Soybean planting will continue at a speedy pace, but rains will be vital to germinate the crop. The lack of rain in the forecast and below expected export sales have provided support late this week.

Corns early week pullback has stalled, as farmer selling has slowed. Farmers are beginning to store crops out of the field in anticipation of higher prices.

There is definitely a rationing job to be done. Good support should be found in nearby corn at $7.15 and soybeans near $14.50, which are key Fibonacci levels. Corn rallies to $7.75 - $8.00 and soybean rallies to $16.00-$16.50 are likely. It seems now that a disruption in the South American growing season will now have to occur to reach much beyond that.


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