Pro Farmer 2015 Corn, Soybean Crop Estimates

August 21, 2015 01:30 PM
Pro Farmer 2015 Corn, Soybean Crop Estimates

Pro Farmer pegs 2015 U.S. corn crop at 13.323 billion bu.; Average yield of 164.3 bu. per acre
/- 1% = 13.456 billion bu. to 13.190 billion bu.; 165.9 bu. to 162.7 bu. per acre

Pro Farmer pegs 2015 U.S. soybean crop at 3.887 billion bu.; Average yield of 46.5 bu. per acre
Soybeans /- 2% = 3.965 billion bu. to 3.809 billion bu.; 47.4 bu. to 45.6 bu. per acre

Note: These estimates are based on assumptions for normal weather through September. Even with a normal end to the growing season, we have concerns about the corn crop’s ability to hold yield potential given nitrogen deficiency across the eastern Corn Belt. The soybean crop has potential to add bushels into harvest if late-season weather is favorable. The rains that fell last week will help soybeans fill pods and even allow some late-planted soybeans to add pods. We made no adjustments to harvested corn or soybean acres.

Ohio: 1
51 bu. per acre. We wondered whether Ohio was as bad as billed — results lived up to the reports. Crops are yellow and uneven, with poor grain length. The crop will likely struggle to hold onto yield potential.

Indiana: 145 bu. per acre. We found an extremely uneven and nitrogen-deficient corn crop in the Hoosier state. Given the nitrogen issues, it will likely struggle to finish.

Illinois: 169 bu. per acre. This was easily the best state of the eastern Corn Belt, but the crop was not without its challenges. Nitrogen deficiency and leaf disease likely took the top end off yields, but rains last week could help the crop build ear weight, if it gets some heat.

Iowa: 181 bu. per acre. Yields were disappointing in southwest Iowa due to wet weather this spring, but conditions improved drastically as scouts moved north. Soil moisture is there, but the crop needs heat and sunshine to build yields into harvest.

Minnesota: 178 bu. per acre. The highest sample in Tour history was pulled here, but overall yields weren’t as attention-grabbing as we anticipated. Ponded and drowned out acres were notably absent.

Nebraska: 178 bu. per acre. There’s no doubt about it… Nebraska has a strong crop in the works. Dryland yields were impressive, but we didn’t find the kind of irrigated yields to get to USDA’s August estimate.

South Dakota: 160 bu. per acre. Corn is even and largely free of disease/insect pressure. So long as the growing season does not end early, yields could notch a record.

46.4 bu. per acre. We found our shortest beans in Ohio — much of the crop had not even canopied and it showed via sharply lower pod counts than usual. Short plants limit the crop’s potential for a late rebound.

Indiana: 47.6 bu. per acre. Indiana faces many of the same problems Ohio does, as beans in the state are short, variable and pod counts were down notably from year-ago.

Illinois: 50.5 bu. per acre. Soybeans have fared better than corn in the state. Pod counts were down from year-ago, but rains during Tour could help the crop build yield potential. Insect and disease pressure was limited.

Iowa: 54 bu. per acre. Soybeans have outstanding yield potential based on pod counts — these were just marginally behind Nebraska. But the crop is not made, and SDS is a concern in southern areas. The crop needs energy to build a big bean, and the moisture is already there for it to do so. The risk for this crop is underestimating its potential.

Minnesota: 46.0 bu. per acre. We found a lot of beans in Minnesota, but pods will need a long fall to reach their full potential.

Nebraska: 55.5 bu. per acre. We’ve said it time and time again... Nebraska knows how to grow soybeans. It had the highest pod counts of Tour. But high pod counts do not necessarily translate to big yields­ — late-season weather will be key.

South Dakota: 47.0 bu. per acre. The crop is consistent and well advanced. There were some weed issues and aphids in some areas, but the state is working on a good bean crop.

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Spell Check

osage, IA
8/22/2015 10:02 AM

  what do u think is more accurate a yield guess from the car window or out taking samples in the field?AND what about missouri?

8/21/2015 05:07 PM

  163-165 is about 99% correct this was the number the trade was thinking weeks ago and my our number. c/o for 2015 seems to be 1325-1425. imputs are lower but el nino is rain for so. america. Trading july and dec 16. also d-17 corn at 4.00-4.05. looks like we need corn acres in 2016.

flying farmer
nebraska city, NE
8/24/2015 06:17 PM

  Oh come on now Wes. John in Chicago has been in the grain business for 30 years. So a guy in Chicago certainly knows more than the people out in the fields or the farmers looking in their fields. I mean really. He has a "whole" 30 years of looking around the city of Chicago for goodness sake. How can one be a better expert than that. :-/


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