Pro Farmer U.S. 2016 Corn and Soybean Crop Estimates

August 26, 2016 01:30 PM
corn nebraska crop tour 2016

Corn: 14.728 billion bu.; Average yield of 170.2 bu. per acre
Corn /- 1% = 14.875 billion bu. to 14.581 billion bu.; 171.9 bu. to 168.5 bu. per acre

Soybeans: 4.093 billion bu.; Average yield of 49.3 bu. per acre
Soybeans /- 2% = 4.175 billion bu. to 4.011 billion bu.; 50.3 bu. to 48.3 bu. per acre

Note: These estimates are based on assumptions for normal weather through September. With a normal finish to the growing season, the soybean crop stands to benefit more from weather than corn. Rains rolled across the Corn Belt during Crop Tour. When we get our boots wet when sampling fields on Crop Tour, it’s typically a good thing for the soybean crop. Much of the corn crop is too advanced in maturity to benefit much if late-season weather is favorable. We made no adjustments to harvested corn or soybean acres.

154 bu. per acre. We didn’t find as much corn in Ohio as USDA did with its August survey work. The northwestern portion of the state showed the impacts of too much water in the spring, followed by a dry June.

Indiana: 174 bu. per acre. We found the Indiana crop vastly improved from year-ago. Portions of eastern Indiana have some “problem” areas, but yield prospects are strong in the western portion of the Hoosier state.

Illinois: 194 bu. per acre. Illinois has a great corn crop, but it’s not as good as 2014 when the state yielded 200 bu. per acre. This year’s crop isn’t as uniform as two years ago through the areas we sampled and southern portions of the state will pull down the statewide yield, unlike 2014.

Iowa: 193 bu. per acre. The Iowa corn crop is also very good, but not quite as good as its neighbor to the east. Yields were more variable in Iowa than in Illinois. Plus, stalk quality concerns could cost some producers yield.

Minnesota: 175 bu. per acre. The Minnesota corn crop was a disappointment. The crop showed impacts from the May 15 frost and three weeks of heat in late June/early July.

Nebraska: 179 bu. per acre. We found irrigated corn disappointing in the Husker state. South-central and southeastern areas are dealing with a lot of lodging and green snap.

South Dakota: 142. bu. per acre. Southeastern portions of the state got their crop planted late due to excessive spring precip. Once the crop was finally in the ground, conditions turned dry. Crop maturity has been pushed.

50 bu. per acre. While the crop has moisture to finish, pod counts were down 6.2% in our Tour samples. With the crop done flowering, what you see is what you get for pods.

Indiana: 55 bu. per acre. Pod counts in Indiana were up 7.8% from year-ago. The crop has plenty of soil moisture to fill pods and finish strong.

Illinois: 58.5 bu. per acre. The soybean crop in Illinois was exceptionally tall. While tall beans don’t always produce big yields, the Illinois soybean crop has plenty of pods and moisture to push above USDA’s August estimate.

Iowa: 58.5 bu. per acre. Iowa has potential to have a very big soybean crop. But Sudden Death Syndrome and other diseases will be an issue for some producers in eastern Iowa. That could keep yields from creeping higher.

Minnesota: 48 bu. per acre. We found a relatively consistent soybean crop in southern Minnesota. Unlike many other areas of the Corn Belt, Minnesota’s soybeans aren’t exceptionally tall, but they podded well.

Nebraska: 59 bu. per acre. The soybean crop in Nebraska is really tall, but is also heavily podded. In a change from recent years, water hemp is not a major problem across the state and shouldn’t be a yield robber this year.

South Dakota: 42 bu. per acre. The South Dakota soybean crop was tall and the distance between nodes was wide. That kept the crop from being heavily podded. On a positive note, the South Dakota soybean crop is free of disease or weed pressure.

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Spell Check

Farmville, NC
8/26/2016 08:17 PM

  Ag industry,keep on with these low commodity prices and us farmers will leave our lands fallow.That what you want?We'll be $$$ ahead instead of losing $$$$$$$$,then,after all said and done,don't crab at import prices!!

McHenry, IL
8/27/2016 10:33 AM

  Why doesn't Pro Farmer use the diameter of the ear instead of rows around? I've seen 20 row ears with very little kernel depth, small seed size, and thus dramatically lower than expected yields. Vice versa on small kernel counts. Diameter would give a better indication of kernel depth and grain fill. I think just a 1/16" wider/narrower diameter could correlate to 10-20 bushel differences in yield; which, in the words of Donald Trump, is HYUUGE!

rice, MN
8/27/2016 11:45 PM

  Tommy from NC, you go leave your land fallow. You should act on that instead of just complain about. I know you would be about the only one to do it. I wish I was your neighbor and I would rent it and make some money off it. If you are losing so much money, stop what you are doing, nobody is making you farm. If you can't be profitable, then it is weeding out the weak and inefficient. Let someone else farm it.


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