Pro Farmer 2008 Corn, Soybean Crop Estimates

August 21, 2008 07:00 PM
 

From Pro Farmer

 

  • Pro Farmer pegs 2008 U.S. corn crop at 12.152 billion bu.; yield of 153.3 bu. per acre
  • Pro Farmer pegs 2008 U.S. soybean crop at 2.930 billion bu.; yield of 39.95 bu. per acre.

NOTE: The following estimates are those of Pro Farmer. They are in not associated with participants on this year's Midwest Crop Tour or our sponsors. Tour data was one of the factors taken into account when formulating these estimates, but there is not a mutually exclusive correlation between Tour data and the Pro Farmer crop estimates.

These estimates assume a normal finish to the growing season… including a normal first frost date. To allow for some changes in the weather between now and maturity of the corn and soybean crops, we're putting a range of "plus-or-minus" 1 percent on the corn yield estimate and a range of "plus-or-minus" 2 percent on the soybean yield estimate.

CORN
Illinois:
168.5 bu. per acre. Maturity should not present a major issue for the Illinois crop under normal conditions the remainder of the growing season. But the poor start to the growing season and dry conditions have taken some "off the top" of this year's crop.

Iowa: 168.5 bu. per acre. Western Iowa fields have some of the strongest potential that we've seen in years and will help to offset variable yields in other locations. Heavy rains caused nitrogen losses in central and eastern areas of the state could trim yields if the crop isn't given time to reach full maturity.

Indiana: 167 bu. per acre. Tour results were up sharply from year-ago. Even though the eastern areas face dry conditions, western Indiana fields contain solid yield potential and should be able to make it to maturity under normal conditions.

Ohio: 151 bu. per acre. The Buckeye state's corn crop is running very far behind with dry soils and delayed development due to struggles at planting time. A portion of the state's crop will be negatively impacted by even a normal first frost.

Minnesota: 160 bu. per acre. Tour results rose from year-ago, but dryness has stressed the crop and slow development leaves a portion of the state's crop vulnerable to even a normal first frost.

Nebraska: 159 bu. per acre. Dryland corn in Nebraska was generally solid, although there were areas in northeastern and southeastern parts of the state that need moisture and time to hold onto yield potential. Irrigated corn was all over the board. Typically, there would be greater discrepancy between irrigated and dryland corn fields.

South Dakota: 140 bu. per acre. The South Dakota crop is one of the most impressive we've seen out of this state. However, a later-than-normal first frost will be needed to realize this higher-than-year-ago yield potential as development is lagging.

SOYBEANS
Illinois: 45 bu. per acre. With Tour pod counts steady with year-ago, there's decent potential for the state's bean crop. Dryness is still a factor after a too-wet start set the crop behind this growing season.

Iowa: 45 bu. per acre. While a light rain fell in portions of the state to close out last week, dry soils and the too-wet start to the growing season have limited Iowa's soybean production potential. Tour pod counts down from year-ago reflect the problems.

Indiana: 44 bu. per acre. Tour pod counts are up versus year-ago, but the number of small pods and dry conditions remains a concern for the Hoosier state's bean crop, particularly in the eastern portion of the state.

Ohio: 39 bu. per acre. It's a bean crop that lacks height and has a lot of small pods. Combined with dryness, these factors are going to limit this state's bean yield potential as the growing season winds down.

Minnesota: 40 bu. per acre. Dry soils and disappointing pod counts in many areas will keep a lid on Minnesota's soybean crop this year. While soybean aphid presence could pose another issue, growers have been applying treatments to minimize their potential impacts.

Nebraska: 50 bu. per acre. If there's one thing Nebraska growers have learned, it's how to grow beans with irrigation. Their ability to control water the crop receives is key, and dryland fields weren't struggling as much as in highly dry areas. But southeastern and some northeastern locations need rain soon to fill the pods the plant has set.

South Dakota: 38 bu. per acre. Tour counts fell almost 20% from year-ago and underscore that solid corn yield potential doesn't equate to strong soybean yields. This crop needs time and water to reach maturity without losing yield potential.


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