From Pro Farmer
NOTE: The following estimates are those of Pro Farmer. They are in not associated with participants on this year's Midwest Crop Tour or our sponsors. Tour data was one of the factors taken into account when formulating these estimates, but there is not a mutually exclusive correlation between Tour data and the Pro Farmer crop estimates.
These estimates assume a "normal" finish to the growing season. That means "late-crop" states like Illinois will see the corn crop mature (but probably with a lighter-than-normal test weight). If a Sept. 25 frost ends the season, neither corn nor soybeans will reach these levels. A two-week late frost could pump up final yields. To allow for some changes in weather between now and maturity of the crops, we're putting a range of "plus or minus" 1% on the corn crop estimate and a range of "plus or minus" 2% on the bean crop estimate.
Ohio: 162 bu. per acre. That puts the Ohio crop down 3 bu. per acre from USDA's Aug. 1 estimate, the result of late-maturing corn and dry conditions in key big production areas.
Indiana: 162 bu. per acre, down 1 bu. from USDA's Aug. 1 estimate. As in Ohio, the crop was late-planted, corn is slow in development and recent rains are too late to help build kernel size on most acres.
Illinois: 172 bu. per acre, down "just” 3 bu. per acre from USDA's Aug. 1 estimate. Extremely late plantings, slow development and the likelihood of lower-than-normal test weights will keep Illinois from reaching USDA's Aug. 1 estimate of 175 bu. per acre. This is the nation's swing state in 2009. A strong finish will point corn yields up a bit from 172 bu.; a poor finish could see yields drop as low as 165 bu. per acre.
Iowa: 186 bu. per acre... yes — up 1 bu. from USDA's Aug. 1 estimate. Iowa has some holes, but the "good” is good enough to more than offset problem areas. Also, once hailed acres are removed from harvested acres, the state's average corn yield will get a bump as some "zeros” are removed.
Minnesota: 170 bu. per acre, up 3 bu. from USDA's Aug. 1 estimate. If it weren't for "poor" crops in central and northern areas, the yield would push even higher.
Nebraska: 172 bu. per acre... yep — it's that good. Dryland corn is the best ever; irrigated corn is "holding its own."
South Dakota: 141 bu. per acre, matching USDA's Aug. 1 estimate. If the crop gets time to finish, it could be better than that.
Ohio: 45 bu. per acre, down 2 bu. per acre from USDA's Aug. 1 estimate, but up 9 bu. per acre from last year. Pod counts are up from year-ago, but yield gains are limited by poor August weather.
Indiana: 42 bu. per acre, down 3 bu. per acre from USDA's Aug. 1 estimate. Despite being mostly disease-free, the lower-than-year-ago pod count and some tough August weather will turn Indiana yields down from Aug. 1.
Illinois: 41 bu. per acre, down 3 bu. from USDA's Aug. 1 estimate. Most beans were planted too late (should yield more like double-crop) and pod counts are down 15% from year-ago. If the yield is better than 41 bu. per acre, late-August and September weather will have to be perfect.
Iowa: 51 bu. per acre, down 1 bu. per acre from Aug. 1. The reason is simple, we saw too much risk for various diseases to knock the yield back from USDA's Aug. 1 peg.
Minnesota: 40 bu. per acre, steady with USDA's Aug. 1 estimate. It looks like an average bean crop in Minnesota... and that means a 40-bu. yield. Diseases could knock the top end off this crop before bean seeds reach full potential.
Nebraska: 51 bu. per acre, up 2 bu. per acre from USDA's Aug. 1 estimate. The crop is well advanced and has plenty of water to finish strong and add bushels.
South Dakota: 38 bu. per acre, up 1 bu. per acre from USDA's Aug. 1 estimate. Bean seed development isn't where we'd like to see it, but moisture supplies are more than adequate to build a solid northwest Corn Belt bean crop.
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