Pro Farmer 2010 Corn, Soybean Crop Estimates

August 20, 2010 09:33 AM
 

From Pro Farmer

  • Pro Farmer pegs 2010 U.S. corn crop at 13.290 billion bu.; yield of 164.1 bu. per acre
  • Pro Farmer pegs 2010 U.S. soybean crop at 3.50 billion bu.; yield of 44.9 bu. per acre.
     

NOTE: Based only on the Crop Tour data, this was the second highest corn yield we’ve ever measured... only behind last year. Still, the corn crop did not live up to our expectations when we hit the fields last week... but is still a really good corn crop. Our corn yield range of plus or minus 1% leaves open the possibility for a record 165.7 bu. per acre; or a drop to 162.5 bu. per acre should late-season conditions take a bite out of the crop. For soybeans, the plus or minus 2% range allows for a potential move to 45.8 bu. per acre, but allows for an SDS-driven drop to 44.0 bu. per acre.

CORN
Ohio: 176 bu. per acre. We see yields up 3.7% from year-ago and the crop is much more mature than it was at this time in 2009. Advanced maturity has not hurt the crop.

Indiana: 176 bu. per acre. We see yields up 6.2% from last year, which means there could be some upside potential left in this estimate.

Illinois: 175 bu. per acre. We see an Illinois corn yield basically steady with year-ago, but advanced maturity should be worth one more bushel than 2009.

Iowa: 178.5 bu. per acre. Iowa, without a doubt, is the 2010 swing state. We found corn yields down significantly from year-ago when USDA put the yield at 182 bu. per acre. For corn, Iowa was also a "what-you-see-is-what-you-get" yield. Maturity is advanced enough that downside risk is limited. Only a perfect finish and heavier-than-normal grain weight could lift the crop from our estimate.

Minnesota: 177 bu. per acre. Despite the fact the Tour results were basically steady with year-ago, the likelihood of heavier-than-year-ago test weights is enough to add to last year’s yield of 174 bu. per acre.

Nebraska: 179 bu. per acre. Another year... another record corn yield for Nebraska. The corn-heavy southeast part of the state is not without problems, but the northeast Nebraska corn yield will help pull up the state average.

South Dakota: 150 bu. per acre. Another really good South Dakota corn crop... and down just 1 bu. per acre from last year’s record. Advanced maturity will help build yield.

SOYBEANS
Ohio: 48.5 bu. per acre. This is the only state on the Tour with pod counts down from last year. That’s why we trimmed the state’s average bean yield a bit.

Indiana: 50.5 bu. per acre. That yield estimate starts a trend we see extending across the 3 "I" states. Indiana’s pod count was up just slightly from year-ago and a strong finish could push the state’s yield even higher.

Illinois: 50.5 bu. per acre. The simple answer to our higher-than-year-ago yield estimate is in the higher pod counts we pulled across the state. What we don’t know is if the state will hold onto the yield potential after adverse weather in August and the start of an SDS problem.

Iowa: 50.5 bu. per acre. We see the Iowa yield down just slightly from last year. We understand that SDS will hammer yields in individual fields... but what’s bad in Iowa this year should be offset by what’s good.

Minnesota: 47 bu. per acre. Pod counts are great, the moisture supply is adequate and the crop is mostly disease free. That’s what it will take for a strong finish in 2010. Potentially holding the crop back is a late-season spread of SDS.

Nebraska: 54.5 bu. per acre. With pod counts up from last year, we see no reason the crop can’t match last year’s record soybean yield.

South Dakota: 42 bu. per acre. That’s equal to last year’s record yield. The state has a lot of ponded and drowned-out areas... but what’s left is a really good bean crop with a lot of upside yield potential.

 


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