Pro Farmer 2011 Corn, Soybean Crop Estimates

01:22PM Aug 26, 2011
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Pro Farmer pegs 2011 U.S. corn crop at 12.484 billion bushels; average yield 147.9 bu. per acre
+/- 1% = 146.45 bu. to 149.4 bu. per acre; 12.36 billion to 12.61 billion bushels.

Pro Farmer pegs 2011 U.S. soybean crop at 3.083 billion bushels; average yield of 41.8 bu. per acre
+/- 2% = 40.96 bu. to 42.64 bu. per acre; 3.02 billion to 3.14 billion bushels.

NOTE: Pro Farmer editors believe USDA will eventually lower harvested acres for both corn and soybeans, but USDA’s Aug. 1 harvested acreages were used in making these estimates. The slight uptick in the bean yield estimate from USDA’s Aug. 1 yield is the result of one of the most disease-free bean crops we’ve ever seen on the Tour.

Ohio: 160 bu. per acre. The corn crop in Ohio is variable and immature, with many Tour samples still in the milk stage. The immaturity of the Ohio corn crop means it has greater potential to add bushels with late-season rains and an extended growing season.

Indiana: 146.7 bu. per acre. Corn in the Hoosier State shows the impact of stressful conditions throughout the growing season. After a severely delayed start, conditions turned hot and dry. Early denting and poor plant health are clear signs this crop has been pushed too hard. Test weights will be light.

Illinois: 154.8 bu. per acre. Parts of the state show promise, but there’s too much stress and poor plant health to produce a "typical" Illinois crop. The challenge will be to preserve yield potential and get it to the bin.

Iowa: 164 bu. per acre. Southwest Iowa is a disaster. Crop Districts 1 and 4 will be better than last year, but not good enough to make up for bushels lost in the southwest corner. Eastern and central Iowa have solid yield potential, but the Tour failed to find many big yields.

Minnesota: 169 bu. per acre. It’s too dry in Minnesota. The stress has been around too long and the corn crop is looking at a 2010-like finish. The crop had great potential but missed too many rains after pollination.

Nebraska: 165 bu. per acre. Good ear length and solid weight don’t make up for missing ears. That was the problem in Nebraska, with ear counts down 2% from year ago.

South Dakota: 140.5 bu. per acre. This crop looks really similar to last year’s.

Ohio: 45 bu. per acre. Pod counts are up from a year ago, but they are flat. The crop needs time and water to finish strong, but has potential for solid yields.

Indiana: 44 bu. per acre. Disease and bug pressure were limited. That suggests the Indiana bean crop could add bushels if there are timely late-season rains.

Illinois: 49 bu. per acre. Rains rolled through parts of Illinois during the Tour. The northern half of the crop has plenty of moisture to finish with a good yield.

Iowa: 53 bu. per acre. Last year’s SDS was replaced with fields of green beans and plenty of plant health. Give this Iowa crop one more rain, and we’ll see a record yield for the state in 2011.

Minnesota: 39 bu. per acre. Good plant health cannot overcome soils that are just too dry. This crop has been under stress since pod-set. A rain now probably wouldn’t recover 100% of lost yield potential.

Nebraska: 52.5 bu. per acre. Disease-free soybeans with no bugs in Nebraska and a crop that can be irrigated at just the right time makes it really hard to be pessimistic about the Husker bean crop. Nebraska’s beans aren’t without problems, but there are far fewer problems than excellent beans.

South Dakota: 39 bu. per acre. We think USDA got too pessimistic with its Aug. 1 estimate of the South Dakota bean crop. It does need one more rain to finish well. Across the Corn Belt, a lack of disease means the bean crop has a chance at a really good finish.