Pro Farmer Analysis | Page 1

August 8, 2013 03:03 AM
 
News 1 | News 2 | News 3 | News 4 | Analysis 2 | Analysis 3 | Analysis 4
Cattle | July 13, 2013
Fundamental Analysis
While the cash cattle and boxed beef markets are still looking for shortterm lows, traders’ attitudes are improving. With attitudes perking up, futures are now trading at a premium to the cash market after months of carrying a discount. A rotation of money within the livestock sector is also currently underway. After actively buying hogs and selling cattle for months, speculative money is now flowing into the long side of the cattle market as traders sense the hog market is putting in a seasonal top and they feel cattle futures are poised for a potentially strong rally once the boxed beef and cash cattle markets find a bottom. Once cash market fundamentals bottom, buying interest in cattle futures will strengthen.
Position Monitor
Fed cattle producers should continue to carry risk in the cash market as attitudes are improving. Feeder cattle buyers should be prepared to add long coverage if the market signals a low is in place.
 
Feds
Feeders
III '13
0%
0%
IV '13
0%
0%
I '14
0%
0%
II '14
0%
0%
 cattlechart
 
Hogs | July 13, 2013
Fundamental Analysis
Lean hog futures faced sharp price pressure last week in reaction to softer demand for cash hogs. Pressure on the pork cutout market and building market-ready supplies gave packers no incentive to raise bids. Traders are also respecting the seasonality of the market, which suggests cash bids will generally soften into year’s end. But traders already have bearish attitudes baked into prices, as October lean hog futures are trading at a sharp discount to the cash index. This could help to stabilize futures in the near-term, especially if more competitive pork prices improve consumer demand. Traders are watching demand especially closely since retailers are switching gears from summer features to preparing for fall buying.
Position Monitor
50% of expected 4th-qtr. production is hedged in Dec. hogs at $82.13. Use periods of short-covering to catch up with hedge advice and stay in touch to extend coverage as supplies will be building into 2014.
 
Feds
Feeders
III '13
0%
0%
IV '13
0%
0%
I '14
0%
0%
II '14
0%
0%
 cattlechart
 
Feed | July 13, 2013

Corn Game Plan: You should have corn-forfeed needs covered in the cash market through summer. There’s no urgency to extend corn coverage until futures signal a low is in place.

Meal Game Plan: Soybean meal futures have put in a low, but the sharp move higher developed very quickly and prices are now at the point where we aren’t willing to chase the market higher with long coverage.

 
Corn
Meal
III '13
0%
0%
IV '13
0%
0%
I '14
0%
0%
II '14
0%
0%
 
 

 

 

 

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close