Pro Farmer Reaction to August USDA Reports

August 12, 2013 06:48 AM
 

MARKET REACTION

Ahead of the USDA Crop Production and Supply & Demand Reports, December corn futures were trading down 5 1/2 cents and are now up 5 3/4 cents following the smaller-than-expected corn crop estimate. November soybeans were up 21 1/4 cents on a big daily export sales announcement ahead of the reports and are now up 29 cents. December SRW wheat futures were down 3 3/4 cents ahead of the reports and are now steady on the day.

 

CROP PRODUCTION

CORN: 13.763 billion bu.; trade expected 14.005 billion bu.
-- compares to July proj. of 13.950 billion bu.; 10.780 billion bu. in 2012
BEANS: 3.255 million bu.; trade expected 3.336 billion bu.
--
compares to July proj. of 3.420 billion bu.; 3.015 billion bu. in 2012
ALL WHEAT: 2.114 billion bu.; trade expected 2.106 billion bu.
-- compares to 2.114 billion bu. in July; 2.269 billion bu. in 2012
ALL WINTER WHEAT: 1.543 billion bu.; trade expected 1.543 billion bu.
-- compares to 1.543 billion bu. in July; 1.645 billion bu. in 2012
HRW: 791 million bu.
-- compares to 793 million bu. in July; 1.004 billion bu. in 2012
SRW: 542 million bu.
-- compares to 539 million bu. in July; 420 million bu. in 2012
WHITE WINTER: 209 million bu.
-- compares to 212 million bu. in July; 222 million bu. in 2012
OTHER SPRING: 511 million bu.; trade expected 506 million bu.
-- compares to 513 million bu. in July; 542 million bu. in 2012
DURUM: 60.2 million bu.; trade expected 61 million bu.
-- compares to 58 million bu. in July; 82 million bu. in 2012

COTTON: 13.05 million bales; trade expected 13.69 million bales
-- compares to July proj. of 13.5 million bales; 17.315 million bales in 2012

USDA's first survey-based corn yield estimate of the year is 154.4 bu. per acre, down from 156.5 projected in July. USDA made no change in corn acres from the June Acreage Report, with harvested corn acres at 89.135 million. The result is a record corn crop of 13.763 billion bu., 242 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate.

USDA confirmed big yield potential in the eastern Corn Belt with Ohio topping the Midwest states with a yield estimate of 172.0 bu. per acre. Indiana is estimated at 166 bu., Illinois 165 bu., Iowa 163 bu., Kansas 116 bu., Minnesota 166 bu., Missouri 130 bu., Nebraska 161 bu., North Dakota 116 bu. and South Dakota is put at 138 bu. per acre.

Based on our observations and reports from Pro Farmer Members, there might be a little room to the upside in Ohio, Indiana and Illinois corn yield estimates, but there is also room to the downside in Iowa and Minnesota.

USDA's first survey-based soybean yield estimate of the year is 42.6 bu. per acre, down from 44.5 bu. projected in July. USDA's resurvey of soybean acres resulted in a drop of 540,000 harvested bean acres from the June Acreage Report, to 76.378 million. The result is a bean crop of 3.255 billion bu., 81 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate.

USDA puts the Arkansas soybean yield at 41 bu. per acre, Illinois 47 bu., Indiana 50 bu., Iowa 46 bu., Minnesota 41 bu., Missouri 39 bu., Nebraska 47 bu., North Dakota 32 bu., Ohio 50 bu. and South Dakota at 36 bu. per acre.

The All Wheat estimate came in just above the average pre-report trade estimate with the HRW crop down just 2 million bu. from July, the SRW crop up 3 million bu. from July, White Winter production is off 3 million bu. from July and the Other Spring Wheat crop estimate is down 2 million bu. from last month.

USDA puts the national average Other Spring Wheat yield at 42.8 bu. per acre, down 0.1 bu. from last month. North Dakota's spring wheat crop is estimated at 41 bu. per acre, unchanged from July.

The cotton crop estimate is off 450,000 bales from July and is 640,000 bales below the average pre-report trade estimate. The national average cotton yield is estimated at 813 lbs. per acre, down 18 lbs. from the July projection.

 

2012-13 U.S. CARRYOVER

CORN: 719 million bu.; down from July est. of 729 million bu.
-- compares to 989 million bu. in 2011-12
BEANS: 125 million bu.; unch from July est. of 125 million bu.
-- compares to 169 million bu. in 2011-12
COTTON: 3.8 million bales; down from July est. of 3.9 million bales
-- compares to 3.35 million bales in 2011-12

Old-crop corn carryover is estimated down 10 million bu. from last month. USDA increased estimated corn imports 5 million bu. from last month, to 165 million bushels. In the first uptick in months, old-crop corn exports are now estimated at 715 million bu., up 15 million bu. from July. USDA now puts the national average on-farm old-crop cash corn price at $6.90 to $7.00, up 15 cents on the bottom of the range, and down 15 cents on the top end.

Old-crop soybean carryover is unchanged from last month. USDA increased 2012-13 soybean imports 10 million bu., to 35 million bushels. On the usage side, USDA increased estimated crush 25 million bu. (1.685 billion) and cut estimated exports 15 million bu. (1.315 billion bushels). USDA left the national average on-farm cash old-crop soybean price unchanged from July at $14.40.

Old-crop cotton carryover is down 100,000 bales from last month. USDA cut estimated 2012-13 cotton imports by 10,000 bales, cut exports by 200,000 bales and increased unaccounted "use" by 110,000 bales. The national average on-farm cash cotton price was unchanged from July at 72 cents.

 

2013-14 U.S. CARRYOVER

CORN: 1.837 billion bu.; down from July proj. of 1.959 billion bu.
-- trade expected 1.970 billion bu.
BEANS: 220 million bu.; down from July proj. of 295 million bu.
-- trade expected 263 million bu.
WHEAT: 551 million bu.; down from July proj. of 576 million bu.
-- trade expected 572 million bu.
COTTON: 2.8 million bales; down from July proj. of 2.9 million bales
-- trade expected 3.05 million bales

New-crop corn carryover is estimated down 122 million bu. from last month. The smaller-than-expected corn crop estimate left total supplies at 14.512 billion bu., down 197 million bu. from last month. The smaller supply was partially offset by a 50-million-bu. cut to estimated feed & residual use (5.1 billion bu.) and a 25-million-bu. cut to projected exports (1.225 billion bushels). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash new-crop corn price at $4.50 to $5.30, up a dime on both ends of the range from last month.

New-crop soybean carryover is estimated down 75 million bu. from last month. The smaller-than-expected 2013 crop estimate cut 2013-14 total bean supplies 164 million bu. from last month's projection. That was partially offset by a 20-million-bu. cut to projected crush (1.675 billion bu.), a 65-million-bu. cut to exports (1.385 billion bu.) and a 4-million-bu. cut to residual "use" (29 million bushels). USDA increased the new-crop national on-farm cash bean price 60 cents on both ends of the range to $10.35 to $12.35.

Wheat carryover is estimated down 25 million bu. from July. The only change USDA made to the 2013-14 wheat supply & demand balance sheet was a 25-million-bu. increase to estimated exports, pushing the tally to 1.1 billion bushels. The national average on-farm cash wheat price is projected at $6.40 to $7.60, down a nickel on the bottom of the range and down 15 cents on the top end of the range from July.

Cotton carryover is estimated down 100,000 bales from last month. The smaller-than-expected cotton crop cut total new-crop supplies by 550,000 bales. That was only partially offset by a 400,000-bale cut to estimated exports and a 50,000-bale drop in unaccounted use. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price at 72 cents to 88 cents, up 2 cents on the bottom of the range and down 2 cents on the top end of the range from last month.

 

2012-13 GLOBAL CARRYOVER

CORN: 123.11 MMT; down from July proj. of 123.57 MMT
-- 150.17 MMT for 2013-14; down from July proj. of 150.97 MMT
BEANS: 62.22 MMT; up from July proj. of 61.52 MMT
-- 72.27 MMT for 2013-14; down from July proj. of 74.12 MMT
WHEAT: 174.42 MMT; down from July proj. of 174.47 MMT
-- 172.99 MMT for 2013-14; up from July proj. of 172.38 MMT
COTTON: 86.35 mil. bales; up from July proj. of 85.58 mil. bales
-- 93.77 million bales for 2013-14; down from July proj. of 94.34 million bales

 

 

2012-13 GLOBAL PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS

ARGENTINA BEANS: 49.5 MMT; compares to 50.2 MMT in July
-- 53.5 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 53.5 MMT in July
BRAZIL BEANS: 82.0 MMT; compares to 82.0 MMT in July
-- 85.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 85.0 MMT in July
ARGENTINA WHEAT: 10.0 MMT; compares to 10.0 MMT in July
-- 12.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 13.0 MMT in July
AUSTRALIA WHEAT: 22.08 MMT; compares to 22.08 MMT in July
-- 25.5 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 25.5 MMT in July
CHINA WHEAT: 121.0 MMT; compares to 121.0 MMT in July
-- 121.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 121.0 MMT in July
CANADA WHEAT: 27.2 MMT; compares to 27.2 MMT in July
-- 29.5 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 29.0 MMT in July
EU WHEAT: 133.05 MMT; compares to 133.12 MMT in July
-- 141.37 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 138.6 MMT in July
RUSSIA WHEAT: 37.72 MMT; compares to 37.72 MMT in July
-- 54.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 54.0 MMT in July
FSU-12 WHEAT: 77.21 MMT; compares to 77.21 MMT in July
-- 106.96 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 102.26 MMT in July
CHINA CORN: 205.6 MMT; compares to 205.6 MMT in July
-- 211.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 211.0 MMT in July
ARGENTINA CORN: 26.5 MMT; compares to 26.5 MMT in July
-- 27.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 27.0 MMT in July
SOUTH AFRICA CORN: 12.2 MMT; compares to 12.2 MMT in July
-- 13.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 13.0 MMT in July
BRAZIL CORN: 80.0 MMT; compares to 77.0 MMT in July
-- 72.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 72.0 MMT in July
CHINA COTTON: 35.0 mil. bales; compares to 35.0 mil. bales in July
-- 33.0 million bales for 2013-14; compares to 34.0 million bales in July

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