Pro Farmer Reaction to February Reports

February 8, 2013 05:20 AM
 

2012-13 U.S. CARRYOVER

CORN: 632 million bu.; up from Jan. proj. of 602 million bu.
-- compares to 988 million bu. in 2011-12

BEANS: 125 million bu.; down from Jan. proj. of 135 million bu.
-- compares to 169 million bu. in 2011-12

WHEAT: 691 million bu.; down from Jan. proj. of 716 million bu.
-- compares to 743 million bu. in 2011-12
COTTON: 4.5 million bales; down from Jan. proj. of 4.8 million bales

-- compares to 3.35 million bales in 2011-12

The slow export pace for corn was again reflected in the corn Supply & Demand update. USDA cut another 50 million bu. from the export forecast, dropping it to just 900 million bushels. That was partially offset by a 20-million-bu. increase in estimated Food, Seed & Industrial use... but the corn-for-ethanol component of that category was unchanged at 4.5 billion bushels. Total FSI use is now put at 5.887 billion bushels. Carryover was increased 30 million bu. from January and the national average on-farm cash price is now put at $6.75 (down a nickel) to $7.65 (down 35 cents from January).

Soybean carryover was cut 10 million bu. from January with a 10-million-bu. increase in estimated crush drawing down supplies. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash price at $13.55 to $15.05, up a nickel on both ends of the range from January.

Wheat carryover is down 25 million bu. from January with USDA increasing estimated feed use by 25 million bu. from January. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash price at $7.70 to $8.10, tightening the range by a dime from last month, but leaving the mid-point of the range unchanged.

Cotton carryover was cut 300,000 bales from January with a 300,000-bale increase in estimated exports drawing down supplies. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price at 69 cents (up 3 cents) to 73 cents (up 2 cents from January).

 

 

2012-13 GLOBAL CARRYOVER

CORN: 118.04 MMT; up from Jan. proj. of 115.99 MMT
-- compares to 131.01 MMT in 2011-12
BEANS: 60.12 MMT; up from Jan. proj. of 59.46 MMT
-- compares to 55.25 MMT in 2011-12
WHEAT: 176.73 MMT; up slightly from Jan. proj. of 176.64 MMT
-- compares to 196.54 MMT in 2011-12
COTTON: 81.86 mil. bales; up from Jan. proj. of 81.72 mil. bales
-- compares to 69.03 mil. bales in 2011-12

 

 

2012-13 GLOBAL PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS

ARGENTINA BEANS: 53.0 MMT; compares to 54.0 MMT in January
-- compares to 40.1 MMT for 2011-12
BRAZIL BEANS: 83.5 MMT; compares to 82.5 MMT in January
-- compares to 66.5 MMT for 2011-12
ARGENTINA WHEAT: 11.0 MMT; compares to 11.0 MMT in January
-- compares to 15.5 MMT for 2011-12
AUSTRALIA WHEAT: 22.0 MMT; compares to 22.0 MMT in January
-- compares to 29.92 MMT for 2011-12
CHINA WHEAT: 120.6 MMT; compares to 120.6 MMT in January
-- compares to 117.4 MMT for 2011-12
CANADA WHEAT: 27.2 MMT; compares to 27.2 MMT in January
-- compares to 25.29 MMT for 2011-12
EU-27 WHEAT: 131.73 MMT; compares to 131.73 MMT in January
-- compares to 137.23 MMT for 2011-12
RUSSIA WHEAT: 37.7 MMT; compares to 37.7 MMT in January
-- compares to 56.24 MMT for 2011-12
FSU-12 WHEAT: 77.19 MMT; compares to 77.49 MMT in January
-- compares to 115.01 MMT for 2011-12
CHINA CORN: 208.0 MMT; compares to 208.0 MMT in January
-- compares to 192.78 MMT for 2011-12
ARGENTINA CORN: 27.0 MMT; compares to 28.0 MMT in January
-- compares to 21.0 MMT for 2011-12
SOUTH AFRICA CORN: 13.5 MMT; compares to 13.5 MMT in January
-- compares to 12.42 MMT for 2011-12
BRAZIL CORN: 72.5 MMT; compares to 71.0 MMT in January
-- compares to 73.0 MMT for 2011-12
CHINA COTTON: 34.0 mil. bales; compares to 33.5 mil. bales in January
-- compares to 33.10 mil. bales for 2011-12

 

MARKET REACTION

Corn futures trimmed gains slightly following the release of the report data and are trading roughly 2 to 5 cents higher. Soybeans have mildly extended losses and are now 5 to 14 cents lower. Wheat futures strengthened following the report and are posting double-digit gains in Kansas City, with some Chicago and Minneapolis futures also double-digit higher.

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