Pro Farmer Reaction to June 2013 USDA Reports

June 12, 2013 06:47 AM
 

MARKET REACTION

Just ahead of today's reports, July corn was trading near steady; December corn was down 6 cents. July beans were down 3 cents; November beans were down 17. July Chicago wheat was down 12 cents; December wheat was down 13 cents.

Grains initially responded with sharp losses, but have worked back up from the lows of the day. After the reports July corn is down 7 3/4 cents; December corn is off 13 1/4 cents. July beans are up 10 3/4 cents; November beans are down 13 cents. July Chicago wheat is down 11 cents; December Chicago wheat is off 10 3/4 cents.

 

WINTER WHEAT PRODUCTION

ALL WHEAT: 2.080 billion bu.; trade expected 2.026 billion bu.
-- compares to 2.057 billion bu. in May; 2.269 billion bu. in 2012
ALL WINTER WHEAT: 1.509 billion bu.; trade expected 1.457 billion bu.
-- compares to 1.486 billion bu. in May; 1.645 billion bu. in 2012
HRW: 781 million bu.; trade expected 743 million bu.
-- compares to 768 million bu. in May; 1.004 billion bu. in 2012
SRW: 509 million bu.; trade expected 506 million bu.
-- compares to 501 million bu. in May; 420 million bu. in 2012
WHITE WINTER: 219 million bu.; trade expected 208 million bu.
-- compares to 217 million bu. in May; 222 million bu. in 2012

The all-wheat crop estimate came in 54 million bu. above the average pre-report trade guess with much of the increase due to higher-than-expected winter wheat production. The all-winter-wheat production estimate is 52 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Most of that increase is in the HRW crop, where the estimate is 38 million bu. above the average pre-report trade guess. SRW production is slightly above trade expectations and white winter wheat production is 11 million bu. above the average pre-report trade guess.

USDA's all-wheat national average yield estimate is 44.6 bu. per acre, up 0.5 bu. from the May estimate. The national average all-winter-wheat yield estimate is 46.1 bu. per acre, up 0.7 bu. from the May estimate.

USDA puts the Kansas wheat crop at 307.8 million bu., up 8.1 million bu. from the May Crop Production Report.

 

2012-13 U.S. CARRYOVER

CORN: 769 million bu.; up from May est. of 759 million bu.
-- compares to 989 million bu. in 2011-12
BEANS: 125 million bu.; unch from May est. of 125 million bu.
-- compares to 169 million bu. in 2011-12
WHEAT: 746 million bu.; up from May est. of 731 million bu.
-- compares to 743 million bu. in 2011-12
COTTON: 3.6 million bales; down from May est. of 4.0 million bales
-- compares to 3.35 million bales in 2011-12

USDA increased estimated old-crop corn carryover by 10 million bushels. On the supply side, USDA upped estimated imports by 25 million bu., to 150 million bushels. On the demand side, USDA made several changes, including another 50-million-bu. cut to estimated old-crop exports, which now stand at just 700 million bushels. USDA also increased estimated food, seed and industrial use by 65 million bushels (to 6.050 billion bu.). Increased corn-for-ethanol use of 50 million bu. is included in the 65-million-bu. increase in FSI use. USDA puts the national average on-farm old-crop cash corn price at $6.75 to $7.15, up a nickel on both ends of the range.

On old-crop soybeans, USDA increased estimated imports by 5 million bu., to increase total supplies by that amount. On the demand side, USDA increased estimated crush 25 million bu. (1.66 billion bu.), but cut estimated exports by 20 million bu. (1.33 billion bushels). USDA puts the national average on-farm old-crop cash bean price at $14.35, up a nickel from May.

USDA increased old-crop wheat carryover by 15 million bu. from May, with all of the increase credited to a 15-million-bu. cut in estimated exports (1.010 billion bushels). USDA now puts the national average old-crop cash wheat price at $7.80, unchanged from May.

USDA cut estimated old-crop cotton carryover 400,000 bales from May. Total supplies were unchanged from last month. On the demand side, USDA increased estimated domestic use by 50,000 bales and increased estimated exports by 350,000 bales. USDA now puts the national average on-farm old-crop cash cotton price at 72 cents, unchanged from May.

 

2013-14 U.S. CARRYOVER

CORN: 1.949 billion bu.; down from May proj. of 2.004 billion bu.
--
trade expected 1.758 billion bu.
BEANS: 265 million bu.; unch from May proj. of 265 million bu.
-- trade expected 273 million bu.
WHEAT: 659 million bu.; down from May proj. of 670 million bu.
-- trade expected 634 million bu.
COTTON: 2.6 million bales; down from May proj. of 3.0 million bales
-- trade expected 3.28 million bales

USDA cut 1.5 bu. per acre from its national average corn yield projection, dropping it to 156.5 bu. per acre. With no changes to planted or harvested acreage projections, that results in a corn crop of 14.005 billion bu., down 135 million bu. from the May projection. Combined with the 10-million-bu. increase in beginning stocks, total supplies are down 125 million bu. from May, at 14.799 billion bushels. That's up 2.88 billion bu. from the current marketing year.

On the demand side for new-crop corn, USDA cut feed & residual use by 125 million bu., to 5.2 billion bushels. USDA increased projected FSI use by 55 million bu. (with 50 million of the increase going to increased corn-for-ethanol use), to 6.350 billion bushels. USDA left projected exports at 1.3 billion bushels, unchanged from May. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash price at $4.40 to $5.20, up a dime on both ends of the range from May.

USDA made no changes to the S&D table for new-crop beans. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price at $9.75 to $11.75, up 25 cents on both ends of the range from May.

USDA cut projected new-crop wheat carryover 11 million bu. from May. Total supplies were increased 39 million bu. from May, with a bigger crop and beginning stocks estimate. On the usage side, USDA increased projected exports 50 million bu., to 975 million bushels. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price at $6.25 to $7.55, up a dime on both ends of the range from May.

USDA cut projected new-crop cotton carryover by 400,000 bales from May. Total supplies are down 900,000 bales from May, with beginning stocks down 400,000 bales. The crop projection was cut 500,000 bales from last month, the result of a 300,000-acre reduction to the harvested acre projection and no change to yield. On the demand side, USDA cut 500,000 bales from projected exports. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price at 73 cents to 93 cents, up a nickel on both ends of the range from May.

 

2012-13 GLOBAL CARRYOVER

CORN: 124.31 MMT; down from May proj. of 125.43 MMT
-- 151.83 MMT for 2013-14; down from May proj. of 154.63 MMT
BEANS: 61.21 MMT; down from May proj. of 62.46 MMT
-- 73.69 MMT for 2013-14; down from May proj. of 74.96 MMT
WHEAT: 179.87 MMT; down from May proj. of 180.17 MMT
-- 181.25 MMT for 2013-14; down from May proj. of 186.38 MMT
COTTON: 84.93 mil. bales; up from May proj. of 84.78 mil. bales
-- 92.49 million bales for 2013-14; down from May proj. of 92.74 million bales

 

2012-13 GLOBAL PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS

ARGENTINA BEANS: 51.0 MMT; compares to 51.0 MMT in May
-- 54.5 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 54.5 MMT in May
BRAZIL BEANS: 82.0 MMT; compares to 83.5 MMT in May
-- 85.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 85.0 MMT in May
ARGENTINA WHEAT: 11.0 MMT; compares to 11.0 MMT in May
-- 13.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 13.0 MMT in May
AUSTRALIA WHEAT: 22.08 MMT; compares to 22.08 MMT in May
-- 24.5 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 24.5 MMT in May
CHINA WHEAT: 120.6 MMT; compares to 120.6 MMT in May
-- 121.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 121.0 MMT in May
CANADA WHEAT: 27.2 MMT; compares to 27.2 MMT in May
-- 29.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 29.0 MMT in May
EU-27 WHEAT: 132.06 MMT; compares to 132.06 MMT in May
-- 137.44 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 138.77 MMT in May
RUSSIA WHEAT: 37.72 MMT; compares to 37.72 MMT in May
-- 54.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 56.0 MMT in May
FSU-12 WHEAT: 77.21 MMT; compares to 77.21 MMT in May
-- 102.59 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 107.09 MMT in May
CHINA CORN: 205.6 MMT; compares to 208.0 MMT in May
-- 212.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 212.0 MMT in May
ARGENTINA CORN: 26.5 MMT; compares to 26.5 MMT in May
-- 27.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 27.0 MMT in May
SOUTH AFRICA CORN: 12.2 MMT; compares to 12.2 MMT in May
-- 13.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 13.0 MMT in May
BRAZIL CORN: 77.0 MMT; compares to 76.0 MMT in May
-- 72.0 MMT for 2013-14; compares to 72.0 MMT in May
CHINA COTTON: 35.0 mil. bales; compares to 35.0 mil. bales in May
-- 34.0 million bales for 2013-14; compares to 34.0 million bales in May

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