Pro Farmer Revises Corn and Soybean Crop Estimates

September 20, 2013 10:19 AM



Corn estimate raised

Pro Farmer is sticking with our 154.1-bu.-per-acre national average corn yield estimate. We know that will upset some of our Members, but with record ear populations and already-reduced ear weights factored into USDA's national average yield peg of 155.3 bu. per acre, we feel there's a little downside risk to yields after the stressful kernel-fill period, but not a lot due to the record ear populations.

But Pro Farmer is making some adjustments to our harvested acreage estimate based on Farm Service Agency (FSA) certified acreage data released this week. We now estimate harvested corn acres at 87.593 million, which compares to our Aug. 24 estimate of 87.335 million acres and USDA's current peg of 89.135 million acres. The result is a crop of 13.5 billion bu., up just 40 million bu. from our previous estimate.

Soybean estimate lowered

Pro Farmer updated our soybean crop estimate this week, based on updated FSA certified acreage data and recent crop condition observations. In August, FSA data suggested bean plantings were about 800,000 acres below USDA's peg, and our Aug. 24 crop estimate included a harvested acreage estimate 800,000 acres below USDA’s harvested acreage tally. We now see harvested soybean acres of 75.961 million, up 383,000 from our previous harvested acreage estimate. However, our harvested acreage tally is still 417,000 below USDA’s current harvested acreage estimate of 76.378 million.

We also lowered our national average bean yield estimate by 1 bu. per acre since our Aug. 24 estimate to 40.8 bu. per acre. USDA's current national average yield projection is at 41.2 bu. per acre. We lowered our yield estimate based on (1) extremely stressful conditions, as much of the Midwest bean crop was trying to build bean size; (2) our aerial observations of the bean crop in northeastern Iowa and southeastern Minnesota; and (3) Member reports on the earliest beans harvested.

The result is a bean crop estimate of 3.097 billion bu., 52 million bu. below USDA’s September forecast of 3.149 billion bu. and 61 million bu. less than our previous estimate.

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