With weather forecasters calling for a cold, wet April followed by record summer heat, farmers and the market might want to prepare for a few surprises in the months to come, according to Jerry Gulke.
The first might be more corn acres than people expect in the Prospective Plantings report and those that follow, given current prices for corn and growing trendline yields. “The thinking is, if prices go lower, I can make it up in yield,” explained Gulke, president of the Gulke Group and a farmer in Illinois. “Whereas in soybeans, you look at the same situation and those people got good bean yields, but nothing in proportion to what they got in corn. I think a lot of people are fed up with soybeans because they just don’t have the yield kick when the right things happen.”
But it’s tough to predict what USDA will say. “If we would show big moves in corn and beans, they may not project that and rather kick it down the road” until the June acreage report, Gulke said.
Or USDA may not. Gulke recalled 2007, when farmers made some major shifts in corn and soybeans. USDA “did report what they saw then, so I think there could be some surprises,” he said.
Listen to Gulke’s full comments here:
What do you think will happen with the weather this year? Let us know in the comments.