The world will reap its biggest wheat crop ever in the coming season as larger harvests in Europe and the Black Sea region lift stockpiles, according to the Agricultural Market Information System.
Production will climb to 702 million metric tons in the 2013-14 season starting July 1 from 659 million tons in 2012-13, Rome-based AMIS, which was set up by Group of 20 countries, wrote in an online report today. That will rebuild inventories and reduce trade as importers in Asia and Europe grow more of the grain at home, the report showed.
Wheat traded in Chicago, a global benchmark, fell about 10 percent this year on the outlook for rising production. The projected rebound follows drought last year that hurt harvests in Russia, Ukraine, southern Europe and the U.S. The global forecast from AMIS exceeded estimates by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the International Grains Council.
"Early indications for world wheat, maize and rice production in 2013 point to record levels and an overall increase in supplies in the new 2013-14 marketing season," AMIS wrote, using another name for corn.
Wheat stockpiles may climb to 173 million tons from 164 million tons in 2012-13 as trade shrinks to 136 million tons from 140 million tons, according to the report.
Consumption of the grain is predicted to rise to 694 million tons next season from 686 million tons as animal-feed use returns to "more normal levels" and food demand keeps pace with population growth, AMIS wrote.
Global corn production is predicted to jump to 963 million tons from 873 million tons, mainly on an expected rebound in the U.S. crop, AMIS said. Consumption will climb to 923 million tons from 879 million tons on higher feed use, it said.
Corn ending stocks in 2013-14 may expand to 174 million tons from 135 million tons, the report showed.
AMIS predicted an increase in the global rice harvest to 499 million tons from 490 million tons on expected improved weather in Asia, with production gains limited on a more positive price outlook for other crops.
World rice consumption is forecast at 491 million tons from 478 million tons, while stocks will climb to 182 million tons from 174 million tons, according to the report.