Recovery Continues in Grain Markets

April 29, 2009 07:00 PM

Julianne Johnston Pro Farmer Senior Markets Editor

From Pro Farmer


Opening calls. These calls originate more than three hours before the open -- use caution, things change:

Corn: 1 to 3 cents higher. Futures saw light spillover support in overnight trade. Futures closed 17 to 18 cents higher yesterday to post a big upside day of trade on the charts. July corn closed above the $4.00 level for the first time since April 14. Spillover gains tomorrow would highly suggest a near-term low has been posted and reopen upside potential to the April high of $4.17.


Soybeans: 6 to 14 cents higher. Futures were firmer overnight on help from strength in the crude oil market. Futures extended gains yesterday to post sharp gains and a high-range close. Soybeans closed 32 to 44 cents higher. July soybeans posted a bullish reversal and closed at the $10.25 level. Futures need to move above the April high of $10.64 1/2 to reopen upside potential, but at least futures remained above uptrending support drawn off March and April lows on this price break.

Wheat: 3 to 5 cents higher. Futures were firmer overnight on help from outside markets. Chicago wheat closed 8 to 10 cents higher yesterday, with Kansas City up 7 to 9 cents. Minneapolis closed 10 to 16 cents higher. July Chicago wheat posted an upside day of trade on the charts, but needs to climb back above Monday's high of $5.50 1/2 to return to the middle of the multi-month consolidation range.

Cash cattle expectations: Watching beef market. Choice beef values declined 83 cents and Select was down 98 cents yesterday, but the good news is movement improved to 323 loads. Beef movement still needs to improve in order to signal prices are attracting movement. Cash trade isn't expected until Friday, with expectations for $1 lower trade.

Futures call: Firmer. Futures are called to open firmer based on spillover from yesterday's gains. However, upside potential will be limited unless the U.S. stock market continues to recover. June live cattle posted an upside day of trade on the charts yesterday. Support lies at Monday's low of $81.10 and resistance lies at last week's high of $84.30.

Cash hog expectations: $1 to $2 lower. Pork cutout values dropped $1.54 yesterday, but movement was very strong. Packers, who are already struggling due to demand concerns and negative profit margins, are expected to lower bids the rest of the week. Cash bids are expected mostly $1 lower again today, which will make it difficult for May hogs to post more than a short-covering bounce.

Futures call: Mixed. Futures are called to open mixed amid spreading, with deferreds expected to see spillover from yesterday's gains. The CME lean hog index is projected down 15 cents to stand at $62.27.
May hogs are trading at around a dollar discount to the index, as they expect continued cash weakness. As a result, upside potential for May hogs is limited to short-covering.

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