Russia Won't Restrict Grain Exports

August 31, 2012 01:16 AM

What Traders are Talking About:

* Russia won't restrict grain exports. Russian officials say there's no need for restrictions to grain exports despite drought-reduced production this year. But officials didn't rule out some government intervention in select regions later this year. Meanwhile, Russia's ag ministry cut its grain crop forecast to 70 MMT to 75 MMT just one week after lowering it to 75 MMT, suggesting yield prospects are deteriorating. The ag ministry also says the country will have an exportable grain surplus of 10 MMT to 14 MMT for 2012-13 -- 4.6 MMT of that has already been exported since July 1.

The long and short of it: With nearly one-third to one-half of Russia's exportable grain surplus for 2012-13 already exported, it's unlikely the country will be a major player on the global export market over the next 10 months. That's limiting pressure on wheat futures.

* Bernanke speaks today; markets listening closely. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will address the Fed's economic symposium at 9 CT. While odds Bernanke will announce additional economic stimulus are low, investors will dissect every word out of his mouth to see if there's any hint of a third round of quantitative easing. And if so, when that will come. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is under pressure as ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure says, "We are working on the possibility of intervening in the bond market, in the short-term bond market, subject to a strict conditionality. From my point of view, this means a request for support from the EFSF and the ESM on the primary debt market."

The long and short of it: Investors want to hear QE3 is coming -- and sooner rather than later. Bernanke's remarks could have market-moving implications in the bond market, stock market, currencies and commodities.

* Holiday trading schedule. Grain and livestock markets will observe normal trading hours today. All markets and government offices are closed Monday, Sept. 3 for Labor Day. Grain markets resume trade at 7:00 p.m. Sept. 3.

The long and short of it: Have a safe and happy holiday weekend.


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