Pro Farmer Senior Markets Editor
From Pro Farmer
Updated as of 7:00 a.m. CT
Shortened holiday week ahead... If
tradition holds, this week's price activity should be lighter (but potentially
more volatile), as trading volume thins around Thanksgiving. Typically, trade
volume in all the markets wanes between Thanksgiving and the New Year, but this
has been anything but a "normal" year. Given the high level of economic
uncertainty, traders could decide to just "pull out" of the market
and return the first of the year, which could result in a wave of price volatility.
For the meantime, outside markets will continue to be the driving force in the grain and livestock markets, meaning daily price moves won't necessarily reflect daily changes in fundamentals. Through the holidays, we could be in store for wild price swings as volume fluctuates.
Keep your comments coming. Always good to have conversation with you
and input on what you'd like to talk about. E-mail
your comments/question to me by clicking here. Please include your location.
Opening calls. These calls originate
more than three hours before the open -- use caution, things change:
Corn: 8 to 9 cents higher. Futures were mostly around 9 cents higher
overnight. Futures posted a downside breakout from the consolidation range
last week, with March corn declining 42 3/4 cents from the previous week's
close. The worsening technical picture opens the door for even more downside
risk next week, especially as economic uncertainties abound.
Soybeans: 19 to 21 cents higher. Futures were higher overnight in
corrective trade. Futures posted sharp price losses last week, with contracts
either violated support at the bottom of the month-long trading range or are
leaning heavily on that support. With futures threatening a downside breakout
from the consolidation range, price action early this week is key to near-term
Wheat: 9 to 10 cents higher. Futures were mostly 10 cents
higher overnight. Wheat futures posted sharp losses overall last week. Fundamentals
are bearish as world supplies are the rise and U.S. wheat is struggling to
be consistently competitive on the world market amid a rising dollar. Throw
in global economic concerns, and wheat will continue to struggle to gain traction.
Aside from short-covering, the upside is limited for the wheat market.
Cash cattle expectations: Watching beef market, futures. There is some hope the cash market could stabilize this week as
packers work to get the week's needs secured early due to the shortened
kill schedule Thanksgiving week brings. But unless futures stabilize, there is more downside risk for cash this week.
Futures call: Firmer. Last week, December cattle closed more
than $5 below the previous week's level, while the cash market dropped $6
to trade at $87 in the Southern Plains. Futures are called to open firmer
based on Friday's bullish Cattle
on Feed Report, although most of the support is expected to go to deferred
contracts due to the tighter-than-expected Placements figure. The Marketings
figure signaled producers are doing a very good job of keeping lots current.
Cash hog expectations: Steady to
mixed. The cash hog market is called to start the week mostly steady, with
some mixed tones depending on demand. Given the shortened kill week schedule,
there will possibly be some locations bidding up for supplies, although hog
supplies are thought to be plentiful for the week.
Futures call: Firmer. For the week, hog futures posted solid corrective
gains last week. There was increased talk this week that the heaviest of the
hog numbers has been worked through the market. While that should be the case,
it will be hard to generate sustained upside momentum as the overall fundamental
picture remains bearish, especially given global recession concerns. As a
result, the upside is limited to corrective buying unless the late-October
reaction highs are violated to signal an extended bounce is underway.