Should We Rethink 50.6 Bu. Soybeans?

September 16, 2016 10:44 AM
 
cass_north-dakota_fields

On Sept. 12, USDA released its latest yield estimates for several major row crops, including a massive 50.6 bu. per acre prediction for soybeans. If realized, it will be the largest U.S. soybean crop on record.

But at this point in the season, actual yields are still up for grabs, and not everyone agrees with the 50.6 bu. prediction, including Descartes Labs, an ag tech startup that does its own proprietary analysis based on several components, including weather and satellite imagery. CEO Mark Johnson says USDA’s prediction is not necessarily a bad one, but Descartes Labs has a slightly different take.

“Our model agrees with the general consensus that 2016 is a year of record-high soybean yields and production in the U.S.,” he says. “The current release soybean model forecasts 12.75% of U.S. counties to have record-high yield, and 76% above-average yields.”

Still, the model doesn’t quite add up to 50.6 bu. per acre. It comes in slightly lower, at an estimated 48.3 bu. per acre. That’s a bin-busting crop but comes in about 5% lower than USDA estimates.

“The states that drive our national average yield below NASS are primarily Illinois, Missouri, Indiana, all major soybean producers,” he says. “We believe this is a result of the prolonged mixed weather patterns experienced by these states throughout August and now September, which to various degrees would impact not only seed development stages, but could also lead to the emergence of foliar disease and possibly premature leaf dropping.”

Descartes Labs uses a machine-learning algorithm that factors in this information, according to Johnson. The company will continue to post weekly corn and soybean yield estimates through the rest of the season to www.descarteslabs.com/forecast.html

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Comments

 
Spell Check

Mush
Sharon , IA
9/29/2016 06:49 AM
 

  After spending a few days combining beans I think I can safely say we will be at least 10 bushel less than last year, lots of SDS in this area

 
 
Tommy Hardy
Farmville, NC
9/27/2016 08:33 PM
 

  There they go again,counting them bitties before they hatch!

 
 
Dana Peterson
Kewanee, IL
9/28/2016 07:54 PM
 

  We have been vutting beans for a week in central illinois and have been decimated by sds ....highest field 51 bu. Low field of 38 bu. Amd its not just us all of our neighbors have the same poor yeilds

 
 

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