Smaller, But Still Huge 2013 Crop

January 29, 2014 11:22 AM
Smaller, But Still Huge 2013 Crop

USDA lowered its corn and soybean production estimates while slashing soybean exports, according to the Crop Production 2013 Summary and January’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE).

USDA cut the 2013/14 corn carryout to 1.631 billion bushels from its November estimate. "That surprised me," says Brad Paulson of Northern Crops Marketing and Investments in Langdon, N.D. "Corn exports have been running well behind year-earlier levels."

For the week ending Jan. 2, corn exports were 155,300 metric tons, the second lowest weekly sales number since the start of the current marketing year. USDA left corn exports at 1.45 billion bushels.

USDA lowered its final estimate for corn production to a record 13.9 billion bushels. It also lowered its average U.S. corn yield estimate to 158.8 bu. per acre, down 1.6 bu.

Soybean output was also lowered. USDA’s final production estimate for soybeans of 3.29 billion bushels was 1% higher than its previous forecast.

The department’s final yield estimate for soybeans of 43.3 bu. was raised 0.3 bu.

USDA also increased projected soybean exports to 1.495 billion bushels. "We think there will be
cancellations," says Rich Nelson, director of research for Allendale, a brokerage firm in McHenry, Ill.

China typically looks to South America for beans once its crop is harvested. Nelson thinks cancellations could become frequent as the South American crop moves into global marketing channels.

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