The EIA has released a sneak peek at it's 2013 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO2013) and increases in production along with a projected decrease in consumption growth are projected to soften energy prices in the U.S.
"EIA's updated Reference case shows how evolving consumer preferences, improved technology, and economic changes are pushing the nation toward more domestic energy production, greater vehicle efficiency, greater use of clean energy, and reduced energy imports," said EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski.
AEO2013 offers a number of key findings, including:
- Crude oil production, especially from tight oil plays, rises sharply over the next decade. Domestic oil production will rise to 7.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019, up from less than 6 million bpd in 2011.
- Growth in diesel fuel consumption will be moderated by the increased use of natural gas in heavy-duty vehicles.
- Because quickly rising natural gas production outpaces domestic consumption, the United States will become a net exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2016 and a net exporter of total natural gas (including via pipelines) in 2020.
- The net import share of total U.S. energy consumption falls to 9 percent in 2040 from 19 percent in 2011.
Based on these projections, experts look for U.S. energy to moderate in the coming decades. The report reaches out clear to 2040, but is quick to warn that global energy markets are highly subject to influencing factors worldwide. But with U.S. domestic crude production massaging fuel prices while consumption falls, prices are expected to remain soft.
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