South American Crop Estimates Continue to Rise

02:29PM Feb 18, 2020
Brazil Cerrado savanna
Bunge Ltd teams with one of Brazil's biggest ag lenders to protect the Cerrado savanna is
( The Nature Conservancy/Gabriel Daldegan )

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier added 1 MMT to his Brazilian soybean crop estimate that now stands at 125 MMT. “The weather in Brazil continues to generally be beneficial especially for the soybeans that are filling pods,” he explains. He has a neutral to higher bias going forward.

Cordonnier is not alone in raising his Brazilian soybean crop estimate. Last week, USDA hiked its estimate a fairly aggressive 2 MMT to 125 MMT. The agribusiness consultancy AgRural raised its Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 1.7 MMT today, pushing it to a record-high 125.6 MMT, citing “an exceptional Brazilian harvest.” The consultancy says record-production in a number of top-producing states is more than making up for losses in Rio Grande do Sul.

ARC Mercosul reports harvest of the Brazilian soybean crop is near in line with the five-year average at 27% complete.

Cordonnier continues to estimate Brazil’s corn crop at 100 MMT, with a neutral bias going forward. USDA last week estimated the crop at 101 MMT. Planting of the country’s second-season corn crop is underway.

Cordonnier also raised his Argentine soybean crop estimate 1 MMT to 54 MMT, and his bias is neutral to higher going forward. He explains, “we don’t have any yield reports as yet, but there are no significant problems being reported with the soybeans in Argentina. Therefore, I am expecting good soybean yields in Argentina.” He also notes that the country has and is expected to continue to receive timely rains.

This also prompted him to raise his Argentine corn crop estimate by 1.5 MMT, pushing it to 49 MMT. His bias is neutral to higher going forward. “There is every expectation that more positive corn yields will be reported when the harvest moves into the core production areas where the weather has been good during the entire growing season,” he details.

Argentina will likely produce a 50 MMT corn crop and a 53 MMT soybean crop in 2019-20, USDA projected last week.