South American Weather Driving Crop Size Down

January 9, 2019 01:52 PM
 
 

Corn futures rising on news dry conditions in Brazil are threatening yields. Ag consultants are forecasting lower than anticipated production. 

During an interview on AgDay TV, Jim McCormick with Allendale tells Clinton Griffiths the weather market is back. 

"Early in the growing season there was a lot of talk of 125 to 130 million metric tons [of soybeans]," says McCormick.  "Well, they had a very dry December in parts of the country."

He says some areas have seen rainfall 30 to 40 percent below normal. 

"It's not a disaster but their top end is coming off," says McCormick. "There's talk this crop is probably below 120 MMT maybe around 117 MMT to 115 MMT."

He says it's still somewhat early, but the trend is not for the crop to get bigger. It's getting smaller.

"I don't want to get people bulled up on this," says McCormick. "The fact is we have a carryout of almost 950 million bushels in the U.S. and the world carry out is at record levels." 

Issues like Chinese trade tensions and African Swine Fever are weighing on demand, but this weather scare may offer opportunities. 

"I think you've got a decent shot of beans pushing back up toward $10," says McCormick. "I would encourage producers when they get that opportunity to take advantage of it."

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