Soybean Prices Rally on Wet Weather

01:47PM Jun 17, 2019
Wet soybeans 1
Wet soybean field
( Wyatt Bechtel )

 Soybean futures posted their sixth consecutive gain on Monday as front month contracts at the CME Group in Chicago top $9.10.  Traders remaining focused on the wet weather and the potential for soybean plantings to decline ahead of the USDA's latest Crop Progress report.

During an interview with AgDay's Clinton Griffiths, Naomi Blohm with Stewart-Peterson says with so much of the crop not in the ground there are a lot of decisions yet to be made. 

"I think the biggest thing to remember is that we are at or coming up to some really important prevent plant dates for a good part of the country," says Blohm. "Will the producers be willing to take it beyond those prevent plant dates to get the crop in the ground or not?"

Blohm says the USDA and trade are expecting a billion bushel carry out for soybeans this year on average production and more acres switching from corn to soybeans. However, given the continued weather issues that may not happen.

"What we need to see happen is more than 2 million acres taken off and yield to come down two or three bushels," says Blohm. "If that happens, then we have any stocks closer to 750 million."

Historically speaking Blohm recognizes that's still a big number. 

"In order to see high price beans, you have to have continued weather issues with the corn complex pushing the corn prices higher," says Blohm. "If the November [soybean] contract can get above $9.25 that opens the way higher to $10 futures." 

AgDay Analysis 061719