The pace of soybean exports from the U.S. and South America probably will slow through the end of the season as Chinese demand declines because of ample stockpiles, Oil World said.
Combined exports from Brazil, Argentina and the U.S. will be 45.09 million metric tons from April through September, less than the 46.86 million tons shipped in the same period last year, the Hamburg-based researcher said in an e-mailed report. Exports will slow after 50.73 million tons of soybeans were shipped in the first half of the season that started Oct. 1, according to the report.
Soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade, a global benchmark, rallied 13 percent this year as U.S. stockpiles tightened amid increasing demand from China in the first half of the season. Chinese importers may have defaulted on at least 500,000 tons of soybeans recently after failing to get access to credit, Oil World said. Slowing demand previously spurred China to cancel some soybean purchases from South America, Oil World has said.
"The strong dependence on demand from China is currently having repercussions on soybean producers and exporters," Oil World said. It is "likely that soybean demand will suffer temporarily from the large soybean stocks accumulated in China and other importing countries in recent months."
U.S. soybean stockpiles will be 135 million bushels at the end of the 2013-14 season, 6.9 percent below a previous estimate and less than reserves of 141 million a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said April 9. U.S. exporters sold 44.6 million tons this season through April 3, about 4 percent more than the USDA projects shipments will reach for the entire year, raising speculation that some sales will be canceled.
U.S. soybean exports may tumble to 3.2 million tons in the six months through September, compared with the prior seven-year average of 8 million tons during that timeframe, Oil World said. Brazil’s exports through September may be 32.88 million tons, 8.5 percent less than last year, while Argentina’s shipments may rise 26 percent from the prior season to 9 million tons, according to the report.