On average since 1970, spring price lows come on May 19 for November soybeans. More recently (since 2004), that date has been April 16, reports Bill Fordham of C&S Grain Marketing in Ohio, Ill.
This year, the spring high occurred on April 21 at $9.855. "If the November contract trades below $8.94 this week, it is probably still seeking its spring price low. The latest date the low has occurred was on July 25, 2003, and it has come in July seven times since 1970. If the spring low this year is average, it would be in the $8.39 to $8.67 range.”
A daily close above $9.22 or below $8.93 would be a breakout of the current sideways pattern and should provide momentum for a 25¢ to 30¢ thrust in the direction of the breakout, Fordham adds.
If La Niña develops by mid-July, odds are it will have more of a negative impact on soybeans than on corn and could turn prices higher. For commentary on La Niña from Iowa State's Elwynn Taylor, see La Niña Could Spell Trouble for Grain Growers
Fordham says other factors that could turn the tide to the upside include disruption of crude oil in the Middle East, a downturn in the dollar, more interest in owning from speculators, and realization that the U.S economy is improving.