Soybean Supplies Means a Tough Job of Rationing Ahead

September 13, 2012 10:31 AM
 

USDA estimated old-crop soybean carryover at 130 million bu., down 15 million bu. from the August estimate. Even after spending an extended period of time above $15, USDA increased estimated 2011-12 bean crush 15 million bu., to 1.705 billion bushels. Old-crop exports were also increased 10 million bu., to 1.36 billion bushels. Those demand increases were partially offset by a 10-million-bu. cut to residual “use.”

Can’t use what you don’t have —

Those old-crop usage tallies make USDA’s new-crop demand estimates look “ridiculous.” For the 2012-13 marketing year, USDA puts soybean crush at 1.5 million bu. (down 205 million bu. from year earlier) and exports at 1.055 billion bu. (down 305 million bu. from 2011-12).

USDA’s export new-crop export forecast is equal to 28.71 million metric tons (MMT), a 22.4% drop from 2011-12. Total export commitments this year, however, are running 41% ahead of year-ago. Already, total bookings are at 72% of the annual export estimate and we’re in only the first week of the marketing year!

Clearly, this is a case of “you can’t use what you don’t have,” but prices haven’t done enough to slow down bean use.

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by QTInfo.com
Brought to you by Beyer
Close