The Pro Farmer Crop Tour found some fields with pod counts 20% above last year, and reports a 44.9-bu. national yield, versus USDA’s 44 bu. “I plugged their yield into USDA’s demand scenario and carryover rises to 428 million bushels,” says Jerry Gulke of the Gulke Group. “We got a very bearish technical signal when November beans tested the $10.48 level reached back in December and made a weekly key reversal down.
“Sure, there’s buzz about Sudden Death Syndrome. I’ve got some on my Rockford farm,” says Gulke. But if your beans are fully podded and filled and then die, your loss won’t be that significant. And there’s talk of La Nina maybe causing problems for South America and taking prices into the teens. I just hope we aren’t in a situation where we need trouble in South America.
“World traders were bullish at USDA’s yield number. Now, at higher levels, there’s risk above $10.50. If we’re wrong selling there, it’s a good place to be wrong,” he says. “If I can sell some at $11.50 to $12, I’ll do it, and if the market makes it to $13 or $14, it can keep the extra couple dollars. It isn’t worth the risk,” he says.