Soybeans Fall as Gains Seen Excessive Amid Record Crop Outlook

September 5, 2013 03:14 AM
Soybeans Fall as Gains Seen Excessive Amid Record Crop Outlook

Soybeans slipped for a second day amid speculation the oilseed’s gains in the past month on weather concerns in the U.S. have been excessive amid an outlook for record global production.

World soybean production is forecast to climb about 7 percent to 284 million metric tons in 2013-14 on bigger crops in the U.S., Brazil, Argentina and India, the Agricultural Market Information System set up by Group of 20 countries reported today. A surge in prices is restricting demand potential and will prompt more soybean planting in South America, according to analysts Kona Haque and Chris Gadd at Macquarie Group Ltd.

"The market has been too willing to price in the most pessimistic views and we would be bearish from current levels in all but the most extreme scenarios," Haque and Gadd wrote.

Soybeans for November delivery slipped 0.6 percent to $13.45 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade at 6:01 a.m., after earlier today falling to $13.39, the lowest since Aug. 23. Prices dropped 2.5 percent yesterday, the most since July 25. Futures trading volumes were 28 percent higher than the average for the past 100 days for this time of day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Soybeans rose 13 percent in August, the most since July 2012, on concern U.S. crops delayed by wet conditions earlier this year will be damaged by dry weather.

Growing conditions for soybeans are favorable in China and India, while in the U.S. about half the crop remains in good to excellent conditions, according to AMIS.

"We remain cautious for the outlook for soybean supplies given the variability that weather in the coming weeks can still have on the U.S. crops," Haque and Gadd wrote. "Lots of regions in the U.S. still look in good condition."

Corn for December delivery fell 0.3 percent to $4.68 a bushel and wheat for delivery the same month fell 0.2 percent to $6.4525 a bushel in Chicago. Milling wheat traded on NYSE Liffe in Paris slipped 0.1 percent to 187.50 euros ($247.74) a ton.


--With assistance from Phoebe Sedgman in Melbourne. Editors: John Deane, Dan Weeks


To contact the reporter on this story: Rudy Ruitenberg in Paris at


To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Poole at; Claudia Carpenter at


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