Soybeans Stage Impressive Rally

15:34PM Feb 22, 2013

Trading was quite mixed in the grains this holiday-shortened week with corn and wheat making its highs for the week on Tuesday and facing a selloff into the week’s end. Soybeans, on the other hand, put in their lows for the week on Tuesday and staged an impressive rally into Friday morning before a sharp selloff took place late Friday following March soybeans' inability to hold above the $15 level.

The trading range in March soybeans was nearly $.60 on Friday as technical selling picked up on the reversal action. Fundamentally, soybeans were supported most of the week by ideas of strong demand as shipping delays in South America, including talk of a dock workers strike, grabbed the market’s attention.

Rumors of up to nine cargoes of soybeans being sold to China helped the market stage over a $1 rally to March soybeans from its mid-February low before collapsing late on Friday. There was indeed fresh business announced to China on Friday morning in the amount of 15 million bushels, but the trade was disappointed to see that only 2 million bushels of that sale was for the current marketing year.

With a lot of recent longs in the market and the first notice day less than a week away, the exodus from old-crop soybean contracts began in earnest at mid-morning on Friday. The soybean market will need a dose of fresh bullish news to start the week or a further technical correction may continue into next Thursday’s first notice day.

The corn market struggled this week closing $.08-.10 lower for the week. A year ago, December corn made a temporary low on this date at $5.49 before staging a $.25 rally into the first week of March. This Friday’s low in December corn was posted at $5.52. Producers should be looking at any similar rally into the $5.75 level to advance new-crop sales to a comfortable level this winter.


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