As one of the most dynamic markets of 2017, Tommy Grisafi, branch broker of Advance Trading, tells AgDay host Clinton Griffiths spring wheat has been interesting to watch.
"The drought was real and it affected the growing season tremendously," says Grisafi. "The market did its job and [prices] went from $5.50 to $8.50."
However, Grisafi says yields ended up better than expected in parts of Minnesota, and Russian farmers produced a big crop.
"This is where the American farmer sometimes struggles in marketing," says Grisafi. "They say you don't understand our wheat crop is ruined, and I say Russia has so much wheat they're selling it cheaper than you are."
With so much wheat on the world market, Grisafi doesn't expect another big rally right now.
"Maybe we get back in that $6.50 to $7 range," says Grisafi. "Is it better than where we were a year ago when we were $5.50? Yes, its but not that much better."
Grisafi says there was a point when December 18' futures were near the $7 mark that producers may have considered planting more wheat.
"If they didn't sell wheat there or protect it, they probably said I might just plant more soybeans next year," says Grisafi.
Watch the entire AgDay market analysis in the video player above.