Stats Canada Releases Crop Production Report

October 4, 2011 02:52 AM
 

Statistics Canada has released its September Crop Production Report, pegging its wheat crop at 24.160 million metric tons MMT), below the average pre-report trade guess of 24.4 MMT. It estimates its canola crop at 12.928 MMT, below expectations of 13.8 MMT.

"With harvest underway, the good mid-summer weather conditions have Western farmers anticipating increased production of canola, as well as higher volumes of barley and wheat compared with 2010. Farmers in Ontario and Quebec expect lower yields and a smaller crop of corn for grain in 2011, while Quebec farmers anticipate a record soybean production," says the agency.

Total Wheat Production Up
Total wheat production in the West is expected to reach 21.7 MMT in 2011, up 3.0% from 2010. Yield has been flat for the past four years and 2011 sees this trend continue with an anticipated yield of 40.1 bushels per acre.

The rise in production was mainly attributable to an increase in durum wheat. Durum wheat production is expected to increase 30.2% from 2010 to 3.9 MMT, on the strength of higher anticipated harvested area, up 27.5%, and in expected yield, from 36.1 to 36.9 bushels per acre in 2011.

September estimates of production of principal field crops
Crop 2009 (final) 2010 (final) September 2011p 2009 to 2010 2010 to September 2011
  thousands of tonnes % change
Total wheat 26 848 23 167 24 160 -13.7 4.3
Spring wheat 18 452 17 485 17 243 -5.2 -1.4
Durum wheat 5 400 3 025 3 940 -44.0 30.2
Winter wheat 2 996 2 657 2 978 -11.3 12.1
Canola 12 889r 12 773r 12 928 -0.9 1.2
Corn for grain 9 561 11 715 10 067 22.5 -14.1
Barley 9 517 7 605 7 898 -20.1 3.8
Soybeans 3 507 4 345 3 921 23.9 -9.8
Oats 2 906 2 480r 2 887 -14.7 16.4
Flaxseed 930 423 379 -54.5 -10.5
Fall rye 281 232r 202 -17.1 -13.0

 

Canola production expected to increase
Western farmers reported that canola production could reach 12.8 MMT, up 1.1% from 2010 production. The advance is the result of a record harvested area of 17.9 million acres, up 6.3% over 2010.

However, the expected yield of 31.6 bushels per acre represents a decline of 4.8% from 2010. Of the four western provinces, only Manitoba expects its canola production to decline from 2010 levels.

Barley production rises
Despite a lower harvested area compared with 2010, Canadian farmers anticipate that increased yields of barley will lead to a production of 7.9 MMT, up 3.8% or 292 600 tonnes from 2010.

Barley yields are expected to reach 62.5 bushels per acre in 2011, up 5.6% from 2010. The increase is concentrated in Saskatchewan, where production is expected to reach 2.5 million tonnes in 2011, up from 1.9 million tonnes in 2010.

Smaller corn for grain harvest for Ontario and Quebec farmers
In Ontario, production estimates for corn for grain were down 13.8% from 2010 to 6.7 MMT, the result of a 23.4 bushel per acre drop in yield to 140.6 bushels per acre. Harvested area should remain almost unchanged from 2010 at 1.9 million acres.

Similarly, Quebec farmers expect corn for grain production to fall 12.9% to 3.0 million tonnes in 2011, an anticipated decrease of 440 000 tonnes from the 3.4 million tonnes in 2010. The expected drop would primarily be the result of a 12.2% decline in yield to 130.0 bushels per acre, from 148.0 bushels per acre in 2010. The decline of 0.8% in seeded area for corn for grain represents the fourth consecutive year that Quebec farmers have seeded fewer acres to this crop.

Soybean national production expected to fall from record levels in 2010
At the national level, soybean production is expected to decrease from 4.3 MMT in 2010 to 3.9 million tonnes. Most of this decline comes from Ontario where, despite an amount of harvested acres virtually unchanged from 2010, yield is expected to drop by 5.5 bushels per acre to 40.5 bushels per acre. Manitoba farmers also expect a lower average yield, from 31.4 bushels per acre in 2010 to 25.7 bushels per acre in 2011.
 


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