As January draws to a close, Jerry Gulke sees cause for a small celebration. “For 2016, we’re still above last year’s lows in December and that’s good news,” said Gulke, president of the Gulke Group in Chicago. “We keep that going and we got a chance.”
It’s a welcome development given the amount of bearish sentiment right now.
“That’s the good news about these markets—you can’t keep them down, despite the fact that the dollar is extremely higher—up 900 points—on the news that Japan is at negative interest rates,” said Gulke, speaking with Farm Journal Radio’s Pam Fretwell during the Top Producer Seminar in Chicago. “The stock market is higher in spite of the high dollar. The grain market is higher in spite of the high dollar.”
Listen to Gulke's full comments here:
What’s going on? The market might be a bit emotional, trying to figure out what is really going on in the world, between currencies, commodities and more. It probably could also use a little more volatility and a little less sideways movement to provide some encouragement to sell.
“In a free market like this, the price discovery system can be very unrewarding at times,” Gulke acknowledged.
But sometimes it just takes time for the market to understand what’s happening. “A turn in markets, sometimes bullish, can start as ‘realizing’ markets,” Gulke said. “Every day, you’re realizing you don’t have enough (grain). You’re realizing the weather wasn’t good. You’re realizing that economic problems or political problems could change things. We saw all that with the rallies to $7 or $8 in corn back in 2011-2012."