Supply and Demand Factors

December 7, 2008 06:00 PM
The following information is bonus material from Top Producer. It corresponds with the article, "Temporary Slump?” by Linda Smith in the December 2008 issue.

Commentary from Jerry Gulke, Strategic Marketing Services, Chicago
Statistics Canada estimates Canada's 2008-09 canola crop at 12.642 mmt. The latest estimate is above the agency's October estimate of 10.870 mmt and higher than last year's 9.529 mmt. Barley output estimated at 11.781 mmt, which is above the 11.219 mmt projection made in October and last year's crop of 10.984 mmt. Question how in the heck did they miss 20% of their canola crop???????
Argentina lowered the export tax on wheat and corn by 5% points. Wheat exports will now be taxed at 23%, while corn shipments will carry a maximum 20% export tax. In a move to stimulate increased output, export taxes will be reduced an additional 1% for each million tons of corn and wheat produced over a fixed benchmark. The benchmark for wheat was set at 13 mmt and 15 mmt for corn. The export tax on soybeans was left unchanged at 35%. The government plan is aimed at stimulating more wheat and corn production, rather than soybeans likely recognizing they screwed up those markets and now corn and wheat are uneconomical---look for a big increase in bean acres in Argentina!!!
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