The Danger of the Average Crop

May 13, 2015 07:00 AM
The Danger of the Average Crop

After Tuesday’s USDA report, Jerry Gulke finds himself fast-forwarding to fall, when he foresees a potentially even more challenging price market for farmers.

“We run the danger here of getting an average crop,”  said Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, in a special Farm Journal Radio report. “That means we plant and grow too much of everything.”

He, like others, see soybeans as an area of potential downside risk, given the weather, acres, and current supplies.

“There’s hope in the corn, but not much help in the beans,” he said.  “For the 2015 crop, which is the one we’re growing, they raised the carryout by 57 million bushels… that’s over a million acres in beans in stock more than we thought (Monday),” said Gulke, with more potential in the months ahead. “That carryover in the bean thing could get even higher yet.”

What makes him more optimistic for corn in the grain markets? A few factors.

Ethanol, for one, seems to be surviving the pressures of cheap oil and anti-ethanol sentiment. “Maybe it’s a sneak preview of what is coming from the EPA,” Gulke said, referring to the ongoing Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) proposals. “Maybe they won’t hurt us as bad as everybody thought they would.”

Exports, too, remain strong, with the USDA raising corn exports. “In spite of the high dollar … and some other things, we are still going to maintain our global share of the market, and that is good news,” Gulke said.

Listen to his full comments here:

Want more WASDE? Click here for AgWeb's complete coverage and pre-report analysis.

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Spell Check

Dave Burke
Smithfield, PA
5/13/2015 08:18 AM

  First mistake is to listen to any of the "liars" in this corporate controlled government of idiots. All this crying about the weather, that could destroy a lot of the crops, then what? Or is this climate change a bit more about control?

Steve Newcomer
WaKeeney, KS
5/13/2015 11:06 AM

  You can't believe ANY number or report coming out of the Obama Administration. They just make up numbers to fit their agenda or make them look good. This is the MOST CORRUPT Dictatorship....I mean Administration in America's history. Climate Change (formerly "Global Warming" until it was proven the globes COOLED in the last 15 years) is a HOAX made up by GORE, the CLINTON's, OBAMA, & others. It's all about CONTROL. The polar ice caps have grown by MILLIONS of acres in recent years. We've lost more Liberty in the last 6 years than the last 100 years. I'm tired of hearing the "Farm" magazines, newsletters, & radio programs even talking about it! Are you SUCKERS or part of the PROPAGANDA MACHINE?

5/13/2015 11:05 AM

  When I will see some article with no side. To write with no side or jusdgement you have to mention positive and negative effect on price. If you mention about "hope" on ethonol production or export you should mention Bird flue or genetic improvements. Why always have to news or comments against price movement or why always have to make clear reasons to falling climbing price. Why it can not be simply factors that buyer and also sellers thinking.


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