After Tuesday’s USDA report, Jerry Gulke finds himself fast-forwarding to fall, when he foresees a potentially even more challenging price market for farmers.
“We run the danger here of getting an average crop,” said Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, in a special Farm Journal Radio report. “That means we plant and grow too much of everything.”
He, like others, see soybeans as an area of potential downside risk, given the weather, acres, and current supplies.
“There’s hope in the corn, but not much help in the beans,” he said. “For the 2015 crop, which is the one we’re growing, they raised the carryout by 57 million bushels… that’s over a million acres in beans in stock more than we thought (Monday),” said Gulke, with more potential in the months ahead. “That carryover in the bean thing could get even higher yet.”
What makes him more optimistic for corn in the grain markets? A few factors.
Ethanol, for one, seems to be surviving the pressures of cheap oil and anti-ethanol sentiment. “Maybe it’s a sneak preview of what is coming from the EPA,” Gulke said, referring to the ongoing Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) proposals. “Maybe they won’t hurt us as bad as everybody thought they would.”
Exports, too, remain strong, with the USDA raising corn exports. “In spite of the high dollar … and some other things, we are still going to maintain our global share of the market, and that is good news,” Gulke said.
Listen to his full comments here:
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