The Season's First Corn Yield Estimate: 170.7 Bu.

04:28PM May 10, 2017
USDA expected to lower corn yields in the September report
( AgWeb )

Using weather-adjusted trends and assuming normal planting progress and summer weather, USDA estimates the 2017 U.S. corn crop could reach 170.7 bu. per acre. That’s shy of 2016’s record-shattering 174.6 bu. per acre, but if realized, would still be the third-highest yielding corn crop per acre on record. USDA admits the projections are “highly tentative” this early in the season.

That was one key takeaway as USDA today released its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – the first initial assessment of U.S. and world crop supply and demand prospects, as well as U.S. prices for 2017/18. Here are some additional highlights.

  • U.S. wheat supplies for 2017/18 are projected down 9% from last year on lower production. Higher beginning stocks partially offset this amount. Use during this time is projected 2% lower based on lower exports and feed and residual use.
  • U.S. feed-grain estimates for 2017/18 call for lower production, domestic use, exports and ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks could be the highest since 1988/89 and the second-highest on record.
  • Corn for ethanol is projected up 50 million bushels due to anticipated higher gasoline consumption, reduced sorghum for ethanol and continued global demand.
  • China’s total corn supply is down 14 million tons in 2017/18, due to projected declines in beginning stocks and production.
  • U.S. soybean expectations is for higher supplies, crush, exports and ending stocks. A forecasted lower yield more than offsets higher harvested acres, leaving the crop at a projected 4.255 billion bu. That’s down 52 million from 2016’s record-breaking crop.
  • The 2017/18 U.S. cotton crop could be 19.2 million bales, which could “sharply increase” next season’s ending stocks, according to USDA. However, the export forecast is increased to 14.5 million bales, which reflects higher-than-expected export sales.
  • U.S. rice production is forecast down 23.1 million cwt from last year, based on a large reduction of long grain acreage reported in NASS Prospective Plantings survey from March 31.
  • Total red meat and poultry production in 2018 should be higher, due to increased production. Prices are expected to decline for cattle and hogs relative to 2017, while turkey and egg prices could increase in 2018 based on increased demand.
  • Milk production in 2018 is expected higher due to stronger milk prices and moderate feed prices. The all-milk price is forecast at $17.55 to $18.55 per cwt in 2018.

Click here for the entire May 2017 WASDE report.