The Nitty Gritty of This Week's Declines

October 30, 2013 09:26 AM

The following table shows the scattered declines Monday's Regional Market Report referenced. Most states stayed put on fertilizer pricing during the report week ended October 25, but the moves detailed below are too big not to bring to your attention. Most are on this list because they have finally corrected to align with the regional average price. Nutrient priced below the regional average is almost always a good buy.

Growers in a state like Indiana have a tough choice ahead. All states will not register prices at the regional average. A quick look at December 14 corn suggests fertilizer is underpriced currently. Those looking for the floor in December futures are convinced they have it figured one day, only to be disappointed the next, and fertilizer isn't treating us any better.

Indiana anhydrous corrected this week and fell $49.89 to $709.79. But that number is still 35 dollars above the regional average price. Indiana urea looks a lot more like it has found the bottom with the current price $46.66 below the week before and $4.58 below the regional average price. This looks like a good time to hedge some spring urea in Indiana.

As for Indiana's neighbors, Iowa and Illinois firmed a combined $113.07 per ton on urea during the same period. Wisconsin added $25.72 of its own to the urea price and Iowa UAN28% ticked $25.51 higher per ton. As dramatic as the declines were, this report week saw more upside movement than down.

Last Week
Current Week
Regional Average
Indiana Anhydrous
Indiana Urea
Kansas Urea
Michigan DAP
Michigan MAP
Missouri UAN32%
Missouri Urea
North Dakota Anhydrous
North Dakota MAP
North Dakota Potash
North Dakota Urea


Position Monitor --

Our current position has us filled on fall needs, but gamblers have held out. The safe money in most states has been spent. As I look outside right now, it is raining hard. This band of showers will slow harvest progress and make a muddy mess of some fields.

If you really want to gamble, give nutrient prices another week or even two. But note the fall in Missouri UAN28% at $85.00. That is a huge chunk and a retracement of even half of that number would still have you in the go-zone in Missouri. The question is, if a nutrient in a particular state can run $85.00 less than the week before, what are the chances of a 100% recovery of that $85.00 in the following week? I don't know. What are the chances of pulling the Ace of Hearts from the deck twice in a row? I don't know that either -- that is the gamble, and the art of the game.

Like I said, the safe money was spent between Mid-September and Mid-October. Anything beyond that is up to Lady Luck.

If your state is listed in the table above, consider booking at these price levels -- at least a hedge portion. Fertilizer across the board pauses for a short time in the fall and then runs higher, year after year. That runup is ahead. We started pulling the trigger on nutrient purchases in Mid-September. As the straggler states exhale to the downside in this late hour, Thanksgiving is just a few weeks away and time is running short.

See our advice ALERT for more...



Back to news


Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series


Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!


Market Data provided by
Brought to you by Beyer