The Week Ahead: April 29-May 5, 2013

April 28, 2013 09:35 PM

via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

Congress out | Focus on economic reports | Cabinet announcements ahead

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

Lawmakers are out on another break this week, and will return the week of May 6. The Senate plans to finish an internet sales tax bill and then begin work on a water infrastructure bill when it returns from a one-week recess. Also on tap during the three-week stretch leading to the Memorial Day recess will be a debate over possible replacements for budget sequestration.

Potential market-moving events are on the economic calendar, with a lot of attention to be focused on Wednesday and Friday. The week opens with updates Monday on Personal Income and Outlays, Pending Home Sales and the Dallas Fed index. Tuesday will bring the Employment Cost Index report along with Chicago manufacturing data and an update on consumer confidence. Wednesday is one of the key days as it features the private-sector payroll data from ADP, PMI manufacturing data, the ISM manufacturing update and Construction Spending. But the main attention will be directed to the afternoon when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) wraps up their two-day meeting. International Trade data comes out Thursday morning along with weekly jobless claims and Productivity and Costs data. But Friday brings the big economic report – Employment. Also out that day will be Factory Orders and the ISM non-manufacturing index. Otherwise, market attention will be focused on any other economic data out of China and Europe plus any central bank moves that may come about. Earnings also will remain a market focus.

For agriculture, today’s Crop Progress update should continue to show slow corn planting progress and combined with the state commentaries, we may learn more about the US winter wheat crop. But that will happen anyway this week as the Wheat Quality Council will send scouts through Plains HRW wheat fields, providing traders with updates on some "ground truth" of what may have happened to the wheat crop from recent freeze events. Thursday brings the Weekly Export Sales report along with updated trade data. Weather forecasts were starting to be more favorable for Midwest planting weather as May arrives and the watch will be on to see if those outlooks remain that way. Any new developments on the Mississippi or Illinois Rivers could also get market attention along with any updates on bird flu out of China.

Cabinet announcements. President Obama today is expected to officially nominate Anthony Foxx, the mayor of Charlotte, N.C., to be his next secretary of transportation. Reports also surfaced that the president has settled on Mike Froman, currently a White House deputy national-security adviser, as his nominee for US trade representative. The president will also soon name Chicago billionaire and Democratic donor Penny Pritzker as Commerce secretary.

EPA administrator vote delay? Republicans on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee are balking at reported plans by Chairman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) to vote the nomination of Gina McCarthy to be the next EPA administrator the week the Senate returns. In a letter, the GOP members said that they supported delaying the nomination. "We ask that you give us the same courtesy while we work through getting our questions for Gina McCarthy answered as well as the information we requested," they wrote.

Monday, April 29
Markets closed in Japan and China
, the latter's through Wednesday.
Japan's Abe visits Russia: Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe visits Russia, the first official visit by a Japanese prime minister to the country in a decade (to April 30). He and Russian president Vladimir Putin are expected to discuss energy and a dispute over Russian-held islands off Hokkaido.
Economic reports:
Selected Interest Rates (Federal Reserve) | Personal Income & Outlays | Pending Home Sales Index | Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
USDA reports:
Export inspections (AMS) | Crop Progress (NASS) | Dairy Products - Ann. (NASS) | Poultry - Production and Value (NASS) | Puerto Rico - Agricultural Statistics (NASS)

Tuesday, April 30
State sponsors of terror
: Secretary of State John Kerry presents Congress with a list of countries designated as state sponsors of terror. Some see a chance for Cuba to be removed.
Election: Special-election primary for Massachusetts Senate seat.
Economic reports: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales | Employment Cost Index | S&P Case-Shiller HPI | Chicago PMI | Consumer Confidence
USDA reports: Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (WAOB) | Egg Products (NASS} | Agricultural Prices (NASS) | Peanut Stocks and Processing (NASS} | Dairy Data (ERS) | Livestock & Meat Domestic Data (ERS)

Wednesday, May 1
May Day closes many markets, including Hong Kong, Brazil, and Germany. Russia's markets are closed through Friday for public holidays.
Federal Reserve: Amid uncertainty on growth, the Fed is likely to signal full speed ahead on QE3 when it issues its policy statement.
US auto sales: The pace of US auto sales is seen rising to to 15.3 million-unit annual rate in April.
SEC: The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) advisory panel holds a meeting on small and emerging companies.
Animal Agriculture Alliance Stakeholders Summit: The 12th annual Animal Agriculture Alliance Stakeholders Summit, titled Activists at the Door: Protecting Animals, Farms, Food & Consumer Confidence, will be held in Arlington, Va., May 1-2.
Energy reports: Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA) | Weekly ethanol plant production (EIA).
Economic reports: Motor Vehicle Sales | ADP Employment Report | Weekly Mortgage Rates (Freddie Mac) | ICI weekly money market mutual fund data | Weekly mortgage applications (Labor Dept.) | ISM Mfg Index | FOMC Meeting Announcement | PMI Mfg Index | Construction Spending | MBA Purchase Applications
USDA reports: Broiler Hatchery (NASS) | National Dairy Products Sales Report (AMS) | Announcement of Class and Component Prices (AMS) | Commodity Costs & Returns Data (ERS)


Thursday, May 2
President Obama will visit Mexico for a meeting with his counterpart Enrique Peña Nieto that is expected to take up trade, economic growth and immigration. The May 2-4 trip will also include a stop in Costa Rica, where Obama will meet with Central American leaders
Europe: The European Central Bank is seen cutting rates by a quarter of a percentage point. Meanwhile, the European Commission gives its spring forecasts for EU states.
Transportation: Weekly Traffic of Major Railroads (Assn. Of American Railroads) | Grain Transportation Report (AMS).
Energy reports: Weekly US underground natural gas stocks (EIA)
Economic reports: Jobless Claims (Labor Dept.) | International Trade | Productivity & Costs
USDA reports: Export Sales (FAS) | NASS Dairy Products (NASS) | Latest US Agricultural Trade Data (ERS)


Friday, May 3
Bank of Japan issues minutes of its April policy-setting meeting. Markets are closed in Japan.
Federal Reserve: Richmond Fed's Jeffrey Lacker speaks about the economic outlook. The Fed's Daniel Tarullo discusses regulatory reforms and financial stability.
Economic reports: Employment | ISM Non-Mfg Index | Factory Orders
USDA reports: Peanut Prices (NASS) | Livestock & Meat Trade Data (ERS) | US Agricultural Trade Data Update (ERS)


NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.






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