The Week Ahead: Aug. 12-18, 2013

August 11, 2013 12:19 AM
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via a special arrangement with Informa Economics, Inc.

USDA reports key focus of week

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.

Lawmakers are on their summer recess and will return Sept. 9, but the focus this week is on Monday's USDA reports, and a slew of U.S. economic reports.

For agriculture, the week will start with a bang as USDA will issue their August Crop Production report. That will contain the first survey-based production estimates for US corn, soybean, cotton and other spring-planted crops. Those will be very important updates for the market followed by how those new production figures are plugged into the US balance sheets for those crops in the Supply/Demand update. The Monday Crop Progress report will probably get overshadowed by the crop data. Demand news remains important for the market, which will keep USDA’s Weekly Export Sales report on Thursday a potential attention-getter for the market.

The data on the U.S. economy gathers steam as several important updates will be released. The Treasury Department updates their monthly budget figures on the US deficit to open the week. Tuesday brings an update on Retail Sales and Business Inventories, with figures on inflation at the wholesale level via the Producer Price Index released Wednesday. Thursday will be a big day, featuring the Consumer Price Index, Weekly Jobless Claims, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Housing Market Index and the Philadelphia Fed survey. The week wraps up with Housing Starts, Productivity and Costs and Consumer Sentiment readings on Friday. There are also Federal Reserve officials on tap to speak and their views on the timing of tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases will continue to keep markets on edge as they try to handicap when the action will start. Any further economic updates out of China will also be noted by markets.

Monday, August 12
Congress on summer recess: Lawmakers return Sept. 9.
Secretary of State John Kerry visits Colombia for talks on trade.
France, Germany, and Italy each auction Treasury bills.
Economic reports: Selected Interest Rates (Federal Reserve) | Treasury Budget
USDA reports:
Export inspections (AMS) | Crop Progress (NASS) | WASDE (World Board) | Crop Production (NASS) | Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | World Agricultural Production (FAS) | Grains: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | Cotton, Grains, Oilseeds and World Agricultural Production Data (FAS) | Cotton: World Markets and Trade (FAS) | Season Average Price Forecast (ERS)

Tuesday, August 13
The Bank of Japan
issues minutes from its July policy meeting.
Federal Reserve: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, whose comments about the end of Fed asset purchases created news recently, speaks on the economic outlook.
Economic reports: ICSC-Goldman Store Sales | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index | Retail Sales | Import & Export Prices | Business Inventories
USDA reports: Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (WAOB) | Cranberries (NASS)

Wednesday, August 14
Markets in South Korea are closed.
Deere announces business results.
Europe: The euro area may emerge from recession when the estimate of second-quarter GDP is posted.
Energy reports: Weekly Petroleum Status Report (EIA) | Weekly ethanol plant production (EIA).
Economic reports: Weekly Mortgage Rates (Freddie Mac) | ICI weekly money market mutual fund data | MBA Purchase Applications | Producer Price Index
USDA reports: Broiler Hatchery (NASS) | National Dairy Products Sales Report (AMS) | Cotton & Wool Outlook (ERS) | Oil Crops Outlook (ERS) | Wheat Outlook (ERS) | Rice Outlook (ERS) | Feed Grains Outlook (ERS)

Thursday, August 15
Markets closed in India and Chile.
Transportation: Weekly Traffic of Major Railroads (Assn. Of American Railroads) | Grain Transportation Report (AMS).
Energy reports: Weekly US underground natural gas stocks (EIA)
Economic reports: Jobless Claims (Labor Dept.) | Consumer Price Index | Empire State Mfg Survey | Treasury International Capital | Industrial Production | Housing Market Index | Phila. Fed Survey
USDA reports: Export Sales (FAS) | Meat Price Spreads (ERS) | Turkey Hatchery (NASS) | Bioenergy Data (ERS)

Friday, August 16
Economic reports: Housing Starts | Productivity & Costs | Consumer Sentiment
USDA reports: Peanut Prices (NASS) | Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook (ERS) | Sugar & Sweeteners Outlook (ERS) | Feed Grains Database (ERS)

NOTE: This column is copyrighted material, therefore reproduction or retransmission is prohibited under U.S. copyright laws.






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